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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benkea who wrote (51418)	5/20/2000 9:33:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 99985

I don't consider a move down to 605 or even 575 on the NYA "unimaginable". Nor do I consider a drop to 2800 in the nasdaq intolerable; perhaps inconvenient but not even close to breathtakingly dramatic. As far as "everyone" expecting it...I don't think so. I don't know anyone who has even changed the percent contribution to their 401K, no less modified their investment selection. Afterall, they are in it "for the long haul" come hell or high water. Really the only way they will be wrong is if the market collapses and I just don't see that happening. I think more than 30% downside would be necesssary to make people squirm, and by that point they'll all be saying, "why should I do anything now, the worst must be over". Of course, should that scenario pan out, that mentality would probably lead to a 50% fire sale. But, I don't think it will happen. I guess I'm now a believer in the "managed bubble" philosophy. Will there be an external event which causes the "managers" to lose control? I don't see it, if there is such a ticking time bomb. But, that would almost be prescient. I have come to believe time is on the side of the management team. It is like a repair, using a covered call stategy, in a stock that moved against you. Sell time and eventually you will at least break even.