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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FuzzFace who wrote (35922)	5/21/2000 8:10:00 AM
From: Monty Lenard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Edwin, Can't hit his trend line exactly. The trend line I was looking at last week was from 10/25/99 low to 4/14/00 low and it broke below that line last Wednesday. When that happened I started looking at the 200 dsma which it is hovering over now. The next trend lind I see in in the 45 46 area. This 45 46 matches the 50% Fibinocci Retracement of the move from 10/25/99 low to the 3/24/00 high. So based on both those I would say 46 would be a good price. Normally, I would suspect it could/will rally off that 200 dsma Monday based on the Star(almost Doji Star) it printed Friday. Now if the rumor about Chambers picks up momentum over the weekend it may not rally at all. It is a real cliffhanger here and from a Technical Standpoint I would be loaded in prep for the rally (under normal conditions). If I eat crow and change my 200 day moving average from Simple to Exponential CSCO is at 53 7/16 close and the 200 DEMA is at 53 5/8. I cannot duplicate TRENDLINE you refer to unless it is really a SUPPORTLINE instead. Wonder if he is referring to the support line from 1/3/00 high to 4/14/00 low. That would fit the PRICE description you provide in your post. My money says 46 1/2 EVENTUALLY though. Whether before a bounce next week or after a bounce next week is too close for me to call. I will say that it looks like a good trade as a long here with a stop at 52 UNLESS IT GAPS DOWN. If it gaps down below Fridays low I would have to wait to see how it acted after filling the downgap and decide whether to trade it from the long side or short side. Now let me address this "Still, not exactly a decisive break, but if it was my money, I'd sell on the next rally" The, I will use the word "big money" and MM's, also watches these same trend lines we watch and I have seen them move one just under or just over to head fake people. In fact, I check T&S. Many many times I see a stock MARKED up or down on 100 shares just to paint the picture. My VERY SHORT term indicators show CSCO somewhat oversold but my INTERMEDIATE and LONG term ones says it will go lower. Of course the longer the term the more dependable the signal. Here is what "I" see. On a weak rally CSCO should reverse at 56 1/4-56 1/2 ....strong rally the absolute top is 59 3/8. It will then trade back to 50 and try to hold 50 with a max move up from there to 53 1/4 to 53 1/2 then break below 50 and trade to 45-46 7/8 area before reversing and trying 50 again from the bottom. Now that is what I will be looking for. Any change from than would make me react VIOLENTLY. G Monty