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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (3184)	5/21/2000 11:07:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3339

The problem, as many people know and have pointed out, is that there have been long periods--up to 20 years and more--when holding stocks was, on average, a losing proposition. I had to sit through one of these while the bank that handled my parents' trust funds (whose managers were raised on the steady prosperity of the stock market from 1950 to 1965) refused to take the accounts out of stocks prior to the declines that began in 1969. Not until about 1990 did the accounts begin to recover anything close to their real original value. One of the managers even put most of my mother's assets into the "one decision stock", Eastman Kodak. That was the fashionable strategy then. She lost about half her money. Sector rotation may mean rotating from one declining sector into another. I even worry about oil stocks being caught in a general decline.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (3184)	5/21/2000 1:20:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3339

db, that is a reasoned approach. however, the drop i see isn't an ordinary "up and down" kind of drop. few folks were in the nikkei at 39k and made money down to 17k going long stocks. when an avg of a 90% loss hit the american markets in 1929 i doubt that sector rotation saved many folks. my view is we get something similar to japan or 1929 (don't know when - wish i did ;-). we might not, and that is the risk i take. if we do, though, sector rotation won't save anybody. good luck.