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To: The Phoenix who wrote (5895)	5/21/2000 12:39:00 PM
From: James Fulop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14638

>>I suspect that the optical market in the next 24 months will begin to erode. As more component suppliers bring product to market commoditization will take place. Right now there is a capacity shortfall and this is the key reason for the high prices. Once 40G and 160G optioelectronics are available from a number of vendors product differentiation will be in software. The companies that are able to deliver differentiated services will be the ones that lead the pack. These services will not be delivered by hardware only solutions.<< Excuse my intrusion, but I would be curious to know if you think the winners of that trend will be the established companies, or some of the smaller startups specializing in this software....And can you think of any names, as I am always looking for new investment opportunities. Thanks.

To: The Phoenix who wrote (5895)	5/21/2000 3:27:00 PM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14638

I suspect that the optical market in the next 24 months will begin to errode. Where id the evidence? What do you mean by erode? Certainly, the price will drop but, as the price drops, demand will increase even faster. The demand for bandwidth is elastic - as the price drops, the demands increases by an even greater percentage.