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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Howard Feinstein who wrote (35932)	5/21/2000 3:26:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

Gary, Howard, Monty... One small observation (for what it's worth..) In surveying various media outlets (net boards, magazines, Tv shows) this weekend......and believe me, I did look at a lot <G> I have yet to find one analyst, group, etc....that believes that a short-term rally is in the cards....I found many (probably the largest group) who are looking for a gradual drift lower (to low 3000's) and/or a choppy, flat market...for weeks, in fact.........a smaller (but growing) minority that are looking for high 2000's...a few hardcores (time will tell if they are right or not)..looking for a massacre down to 2500 or below...(re: terminology..what else could one call it if the Naz gets cut in half while earnings are boffo, interest rates are still historical below normal or average at worst, the world has converted to capitalism/democracy- albeit in fits and starts, and still no recession in sight...very unlike 73/74..).. Strangely, even though there are still a handful of bulls predicting a higher Naz (north of 4000 by the end of the year...some even 5000)...even these bulls are either shutting up/or looking for a lame couple months... No one...NOT ONE PERSON....is predicting a recovery this week... Wouldn't the contrarian in (any of you)..say that is a positive signal that the bottom is not far away? I do... I have to laugh when I hear perma-bear say there is STILL too much optimism out there....where? Are these people hiding in caves? Sure seems like it....'cause I can't find them...even Battapaglia/Galvin are no where to be found... Murphy predicting the Naz won't recover until 4th quarter...where's the optimism? I do agree that the damage will still take a little time to correct...but I disagree with those who say there isn't enuff fear/pessimism for a bottom.....even Barton Biggs is smiling nowadays..........My survey this weekend (not entirely unscientific....I hit almost every major publication, show, thread, etc...)...shows that we very well could be near a Naz bottom.... I agree with those who claim that it is important Cisco hold the 200 DMA (within a point or so)..a breakdown of Cisco below 50 would bring out some of the worst-case scenarios again....and I would have to rethink my experience this weekend... I only recall such pessimism (as I saw this weekend) on 2 other occasions...October 98 and mid-April this year (when we retested for the second time)..both times strong rallies ensued..since we are now fighting the Fed, I think any rally will be muted, but I also reckon that the large amounts of cash on the sidelines will begin kicking in (slowing the descent, building some confidence) very shortly ... If pattern follows, then, a retest of Cisco 200 DMA (lower open) will be followed with some buying (in general) which should lead to a turn-around (Monday or Tuesday)...and a decently higher market by end-week...after that..who knows...we could indeed be choppy for a while...but it would make sense to me that it will take place at higher levels...since again....NO ONE expects this... Final question: Can I get a few of you to list your 200 DMA for Cisco (there seems to be some discrepancy in opinion)...I would like to monitor closely in next few days...thanks in advance... (PS- It would be great if we could get a CLEAR signal of a bottom, like Acampora predicting a 2000 NAZ...but we should all be so lucky)..