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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (42681)	5/21/2000 11:09:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Carl, yes, it is possible that the learning curve will be too slow and a market opportunity will be lost to RMBS. It is "possible" means that there is a certain non vanishing probability, just like ti was possible for Betamax to fail and it did. Right now, I have no way of knowing what the future will be, what is clear to me is that the market knows long before I do. If you remember late last year, I thought that there was a good chance that RMBS might breach the $60 area with a potential of reaching just under $40. Well the market stubbornly provided support to the stock, first at $60, then $66 then about $73, to me that was a sign that something that I do not know of causes the stock to be supported at those climbing prices, something that other people closer to the "pot" knew. Well, then we got the IDF and the stock rocketed straight to $470. By the time you could have come here and stated that maybe RDRAM is not dead yet, you were chasing a stock, and those that were short paid dearly. Now, we are hearing that maybe INTC is not as committed as the IDF suggested, well, the people close to the "pot" must have heard these rumors long before us, since the stock already reflects that possibility. If the stock does not hold the $110, that would indicate to me that there is more to this rumors. But on the other hand, if the stock fails to breach the April lows on the next NAZ debacle, or breaches $204 on a future rally, or hold above Friday lows for a period, that would indicate to me that INTC developed a strategy to make sure RMBS is to become a major element in the future of the PC. Unfortunately, for me, I am just a farmer, and not smart enough to know that RMBS is "Dead, Dead, Dead." So, accepting my intellectual deficiencies, I simply let the stock teach me what the future is holding. I try not to be caught in most of the major declines, and try to be on board for the majority of the uptrends, it has worked fabulously so far, why should I change a technique that works? I have a personal opinion of what the future of RMBS is, but that is just an opinion, not knowledge of the future. I am of the opinion that INTC considers RMBS an essential part of its long range strategy to offer high premium high frequency CPU, and so far, in recent history, INTC has always succeeded in doing what it wants. I have no reason to assume that today is the turning point in INTC's history, so my opinion is that RMBS will succeed. I may be proven wrong with this opinion, but I will not loose my shirt because I am wrong, my ego is not big enough to prevent admitting errors. You missed the run from $70 to $400 because you stubbornly followed your fundamental percept that RMBS is dead, for the first quarter this year, you were the one to be "dead, dead, dead wrong". In the final analysis you may be right, but unless you capitalize on this "righteousness", what are you doing in the market? Zeev