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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (3003)	5/22/2000 2:38:00 AM
From: lml	Respond to of 3299

One of the most ambitious and most-watched DSL service rollouts is taking place in Phoenix, Ariz. That?s where US West has gone all out to deploy VDSL service, which first began in June 1999. Its' fiber-to-the-neighborhood technologies offers fully integrated digital video and high-speed data to residential and business customers...." Yes, Eric, this is nothing new. Yes, VDSL does work, but over rather short distances that at this point still make deployment a rather expensive proposition that most carriers wish to make right now. However, expect to see SBC & others deploy VDSL in the years going forward, particularly in areas in which they intend to compete with MSOs for video broadcast services. What is motivating this technology is convergence -- the ability of a single provider to deliver a cohesive package of services. But presently, most telcos are focusing their efforts just get DSL out to the masses. VoDSL & SVCs are next, then IMHO, delivery of video over VDSL. I can not find any reference on the AFCI's Web page regarding any research or development of VDSL technology. This is because VDSL technology is chip-based, not switch-based. It appears to me, Eric ,that you really don't understand what AFCI does & doesn't do. I suggest you get grounded in what the company does; what a line card is; and what VDSL is before you start yelling "fire in the movie theatre" at every corner you turn. In short, don't be so quick to jump to conclusions, which as I see them, are often ill-founded. In short, do your homework. The "V" in VDSL stands for very high bit rate DSL. That alone should give you a clue as to where the technology is based (Hint: in the chip, my friend. Also, you correctly perceive that VDSL is "in the cards" for telco broadband strategy, correct? Do you really think that telcos, such as SBC, are going to invest $6B in fiber and copper-based infrastructure to deliver DSL among other services, only to abandon such equipment in favor of VDSL when they are ready to deploy it? NO! What the telecos are deploying is a platform upon which VDSL can be provisioned over existing infrastructure. Before USW was provisioned VDSL, it provisioned plain ol' DSL. What do you think USW did with their invested infrastructure? It sounds like cable & DSL services could "morph" together into something new for the future. This is a good & correct assessment, at least IMHO. I perceived the same about a year ago as I attempted to gain a grasp of the MSO broadcast platform v. the telco 2-way platform. I came to the conclusion that (1) as the teleco's move to deliver video over copper pair, their infrastructure would slowly gravitate toward that of the MSO broadcast model since you don't send 200 channels of video broadcasting over a single copper pair where the single is generated at the CO; and (2) as MSOs move to deliver true 2-way services such as telephony & less-than-shared Internet access, they would deploy infrastructure from the fiber node to the home that would be more representative of teleco 2-way infrastructure in terms of "dedicated" access. The foregoing is just my perception. I didn't read it anywhere. Its just my thinking. Ultimately, in the far distant future there may be very little distinction between an MSO & a teleco -- that is the one's that will be around to compete for customers.

To: E_K_S who wrote (3003)	5/22/2000 12:14:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3299

"I can not find any reference on the AFCI's Web page regarding any research or development of VDSL technology." Eric- I don't quite understand your comment above. Were you just wondering if AFCI was able to do VDSL out of their UMC box? If so, I don't recall this ever being mentioned myself. It's a good thing to ponder since VDSL is supposed to be a replacement for ADSL. But I don't expect this to happen for many, many years. My feelings are incumbents and CLECs are too concerned with it. They just want to get some high-speed service out PRONTO(pardon the pun). -MikeM(From Florida)