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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gc who wrote (72066)	5/21/2000 10:33:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

>>I kept hearing this 1929 scare during the last 50 years. It never happened. Trust me, it won't happen. Today's economy is too strong for that. In fact, it is so strong that fed had to raise rates. You won't see a prolonged bear market in a strong economy. Do some study before you talk please.<< gc, one point at a time: 1. the economy is too strong. strong economies don't need to have their economic numbers faked. fully half of gdp growth is a statistical fantasy instituted in 1996. this growth isn't economic - it a fantasy. in fact, the economy is growing (ex the fake numbers) about the same it grew in 1970 and 1980. i'll assume you are up to speed on hedonic pricing due to your claim to the inference you are "well studied." i'd appreciate a well studied response as to why hedonic pricing is appropriate (if i don't get one then you will force me to assume you don't even know what it is ;-). 2. rates must be raised b/c the economy is strong. this is true. however, we have a chicken an egg scenario. i believe the economy is strong due to a wealth effect created by the biggest mania in history. take the naz and dow down 50% and this little faked miracle economy goes away quickly. 3. you heard 1929 could happen for 50 years. well, not from me you didn't and i can't begin to speak about the kind of company you keep. i'll just say that the valuations for 99% of that 50 year period were well below what they are today so the comparison to now not an apt one. i remember intel's pe in the teens when it had a brighter future than it does now. the bottom line is that interest rates reduce valuation, all else being equal. rates have often been blamed for sending markets into negative spirals and your spin that rates going up means stocks can't go down is, well... funny. i'll give you a hint. the govt is feeding dollars into the system at alarming rates. more dollars will eventually weaken the dollar strength. when dollar strength becomes more important than goosing the markets, look out below. today's big cap/tech markets are almost solely liquidity driven. give the kiddies crayons and they will write on the wall. take away the crayons... i'll let a quote from warren buffet end this not (pay special attention to the words "never been exceeded")... >>Mr. Buffett called the current situation ?precautionary to us? as professional investors. ?It does not spell opportunity.? But, he said, ?The ability to monetize share holding ignorance has never been exceeded.?<<