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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (13860)	5/22/2000 8:31:00 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Re: "..to see signs of slowing (moderation) in the economy..." Economic calendar - 1Q GDP on Thursday: usatoday.com

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (13860)	5/22/2000 10:14:00 AM
From: rsie	Respond to of 15132

"I would watch AMAT today. I do not like the fact that it is hovering near $80. It showed good resistance there on Friday on average volume. I would not want to see an seller attack on the stock with high volume making a close below $79. I believe, at this time, that AMAT's test is more market related than company or sector related. Many large cap. techs tested their lows on Friday." just broke 79......I have read from many SI threaders that a close below $79 for AMAT is the end of this cycle.....Rich

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (13860)	5/22/2000 10:42:00 AM
From: Mr. BSL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa: we are now in the NAZ retest zone. A close above 3321 would be very encouraging. A close below 3321 would not. The Merril Lynch BTB Holder (BHH) is on sale for about $30. Dick

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (13860)	5/22/2000 12:38:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa, thanks for the input on NVLS and the semi's. When we stabilized for a moment this morning I bought a bunch of NVLS for 42 1/4 for a trade. Hopefully we're not heading into a waterfall today. While the NASDAQ internals stink I couldn't find any data from the 4/14 3321 lows. Given that the NAZ was down 355 that day I would guess internals were very poor and volume high but I'm guessing. My second decision is whether to dump my Ultrabear hedge for the time being. If this proves a successful test when all is said and done, I probably don't want to be sitting with a 2beta S&P short fund. Unfortunately I have t make that decision a few hours before the close Marc

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (13860)	5/22/2000 1:16:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa I expect to see signs of slowing (moderation) in the economy sometime soon. This may be encouraging to the Fed. The Fed. could well go 25 basis points and move to neutral in June. This possibility has not been entertained by the market. Market seems to be pricing in 50 basis points and retention of the "bias." Very good analysis. I too also see signs of a slowdown here. The prefabricated housing market has fallen, as reported by the WSJ, 20% this year-so what does this indicate? That the people who purchase these homes, most with marginal incomes, are having trouble financing them. This is where a slowdown usually appears first. Also keep an eye on the auto sector. At some point I feel the Fed will go on hold with the increases if they don't and keep raising rates agressively by 1/2 point increments they will throw the economy into a recession which is NOT what they want.