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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Wells who wrote (391)	5/22/2000 12:07:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

It sounds like you want to pick a fight, and I am unclear why I have to participate. There are no guarantees that Qcom will appreciate to 100 by the 3rd Friday in January at all. But, imo, that gives me a fair amount of time for this panic to work its way through the system, and I feel qcom should be worth a peg of 1.5 minimum, on current earnings pace. That gives me a bottom target of 75x 1.50 by year end, or 107. Many things can happen before then to increase expectations, ie, cdma asics going into pc's and other hand held devices; an asics deal with Nok; europe agreeing to multiple modes; clarification that China-Unicom will use cdma in local areas and gsm in rural; clarification on qcom receiving royalties on w-cdma; signs that Awe is suffering from the use of tdma; qcom developing a w-cdma chip once standards are set; news that cdma chip sales are still growing well above 50% compounding, etc. SOME of these things won't happen but a few should. What can go wrong? EVERYTHING to do with the market and very few of the above items panning out. If the market devalues growth stock to peg's of 1.0. qcom will be at 75 by yera end. If the fed overshoots and causes a severe slow down, we decrease e estimates and qcom goes to 60.