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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blake_paterson who wrote (42802)	5/22/2000 6:24:00 PM
From: blake_paterson	Respond to of 93625

Taking stock again on RMBS. The fundamentals that appear to have changed in the past month: 1. An additional 1MM platforms will likely consume RMBS parts this Q, assuming that INTC makes good on its promise to recall and upgrade to RMBS and that the 820 numbers being tossed about are correct. 2. PS2 doing better than anticipated. 3. SDRAM pricing continues to firm up, calling into question RDRAM allocations for 3-4Q 2000. 4. RDRAM and RIMM prices continue to drop. Box builders are presently paying a 15% premium over PC133. 5. Samsung intends to ramp up RDRAM faster than the most recent projections, possibly up to 10 MM units/month 6. Micron appears to be preparing to immediately allocate a significant % of production to RDRAM, maybe as high as 25%. Whatever the allocation, it represents a departure from ZERO. 7. Kingston introduces more testing equip improvements which it will share / sell / use, thus accelerating the production cost / yield improvement. 8. Word leaks from that INTC allegedly has a backup SDRAM / DDRAM chipset for the Willy, the "Armado". 9. Gateway (GTW) introduces the workstation w/ RMBS memory, and appears to be headed in Dell's direction (All RMBS). 10. Compq is rumoured to be headed down the same path. RMBS Fundamentals that haven't changed: a. RDRAM is the INTC desktop memory roadmap for the future. b. Dell is 100% behind the RDRAM solution. c. Other boxbuilders are behind the RDRAM solution, to varying degrees. d. DDR will be the mainstream server solution for the foreseeable solution. e. No DDR chipset for desktops. Only alpha / beta, cryogenically cooled <joke>, demos. = No DDR desktop platform = No DDR desktop product = No DDR desktop demand = Desktop Vaporware! f. PC's are and will represent < 40% of RMBS applications for the next 5 years.