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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kona who wrote (23284)	5/22/2000 6:53:00 PM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 42787

MAY 22 INDEX UPDATE --------------------- Short-term technical readings: DOW - lower midrange SPX - lower midrange OEX - lower midrange NAZ - lower midrange NDZ - lower midrange XAU - oversold region VIX - midrange(moves inverse to market) CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO - .60 5-DAY TRIN - 6.01 During the morning I got CLASS 2 BUY signals, but with the strong intraday rally of of the lows, my short-term technicals for the overall market bounced up strongly into the lower midrange. That means that there is still significant potential downside. If the market does continue down, I would get CLASS BUY signals again in 2-3 days. The 5-DAY TRIN closed at 6.01 which is a short-term buy signal, but in a bearish trend, the 5-day trin could give 6.00+ readings for a few days before the market reacts. So the question is will the rally that started today continue - HECK if I know. But I will say that if it does continue it should not last much longer and that todays intradays lows should be retested shortly and may fail to hold. As mentioned previously, I was calling for short-term bottom around this FRIDAY/next-TUE(MAY 26/30) per my cycle analysis. If the market does resume the selling, my short-term technicals has a good chance in lining up with that time-frame. MID-TERM VIEW(30 DAYS) ---------------------- The VIX closed at 28.72 which is a distance from the previous peak around 40. Just for reference and not to infer that it will get that high, the peak for the VIX in OCT 1998 was around 60 and in 1987 it was around 170 - YEP, I said 170. The CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO close at .60 which is still in neutral territory. So between the VIX and PUT:CALL RATIO, there just doesnt appear to be alot of fear yet, just neutral, therefore no signs of capitulation from these 2 FEAR INDICATORs. My position still remains that the overall market is in a large trading range until the SPX breaks below 1340, regardless of how negative the NAZ looks. As mentioned previously, my WEEKLY TECHNICALs for the DOW/SPX will get to BUY STATUS in 3-4 weeks if the market continues down, and the NAZ will get to BUY STATUS in 1-2 weeks. I suspect that once the NAZ gets to BUY STATUS per the WEEKLY, it may just ZIG-ZAG/DOUBLE-BOTTOM awaiting the DOW/SPX to catchup to the downside. That timing of 3-4 weeks fits in with the FOMC meeting, so for now I suspect that the better environment for a significant rally should be near/after the FOMC meeting. Im not saying that such possible rally will set new highs, but should be stronger than the rallys we have seen recently. Seeya