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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benkea who wrote (51727)	5/22/2000 10:14:00 PM
From: Benkea	Respond to of 99985

Jer: Get out them caps <g>: Monday May 22, 9:20 pm Eastern Time April chip equipment orders growth barely pauses MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., May 22 (Reuters) - Semiconductor equipment makers barely saw a pause during April in the torrid growth in orders for the machinery used to manufacture and test computer chips, capping a string of record-breaking months. North American semiconductor equipment makers posted $142 in orders for every $100 of products shipped, according to preliminary data reported late on Monday by trade group Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). By contrast, an average of $145 in orders was received for every $100 in shipments during March, outstripping all previous records in the notoriously boom-to-bust-to-boom-again industry. Investors use this ``book-to-bill'' data, which reflects a three-month moving average of the ratio of bookings to billings, to gauge the industry's growth prospects. Bookings rose to $2.7 billion, up 10 percent from March's $2.45 billion, SEMI said. The industry has been on a strong upward growth trend since late last year, reflecting a rebound from a slump that stretched back to November 1997, the previous industry highpoint before an equipment sales glut socked the industry. Chipmakers have been increasing capital budgets to buy, build and equip production facilities. Several Wall Street analysts had said ahead of the release of Monday's data that a let-up in order growth was expected after five months of new records. With demand for computer chips far outstripping production capacity, especially for circuitry used in products such as cellphones, analysts believe that any pause in growth for the underlying equipment used to produce electronics will prove temporary and regain momentum during the course of this year. Semicondutor equipment makers include companies such as Applied Materials Inc. (NasdaqNM:AMAT - news), the dominant player in the industry, Novellus Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:NVLS - news), Lam Research Corp. (NasdaqNM:LRCX - news) and Teradyne Inc. (NYSE:TER - news).

To: Benkea who wrote (51727)	5/23/2000 4:19:00 AM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

It sure looks like bearish greed to me. I've seen two capitulations since Mar 27th on high volume. Thats two major waves down and flushed a lot of overhead supply shares out. The third capitulation was completed today on the normal pattern of catching all the suckers selling with their stupid stops just below the last low of 3227 on a wave 3 down--very amateurish sell move (I don't count the up waves but if you did it would be a wave 5 down on Elliott Wave). Stops set like that do not work yet people still get caught using them. I've seen this pattern so many times I've lost count. People have to stay current with the technical times and count the waves. The 3227 low got breeched for one reason and one reason only--to increase volume, take out stops and thus take out potential overhead resistance---then big smart money is willing to take the chance of committing buying capital with the hope that enough overhead supply and resistance is gone so that prices can rally substantially and they can profit greatly. Otherwise they keep their money on the sidelines. In a nutshell, thats what its all about. Taking other peoples money. This is not about market fundamentals. Market "fundamentals" are only cited to incite the fear needed to get the capitulations so that smart money can take their money.