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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (36168)	5/22/2000 11:29:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Tony Crezcenzi (sp?) of Miller, Tabak has it right (the guy has been spot on the last year or so...calling many turns): "Given the (large) loss of market cap in recent weeks, the Fed game of hikes is nearing an end".. We all need to be aware (as is Greenspan) that the U.S. is still the world's banker...and by hiking rates 6 times over the past year...the entire world is beginning to feel the pinch (the Euros having to raise AGAINST their will...risking nipping their recovery in the bud)...3rd world markets..finally recovering after an awful 97/98...are worried as hell about higher U.S. rates..Greenspan knows he can tank the world if he wants...therefore, he is likely to err on the side of caution, IMO....he will not overdue rate hikes this year..........Remember, the Fed would be confortable with growth in the 3-3.5% range....I reckon they've done enough to get it there..4th quarter/1st quarter of 2000, after all, were anomolies... Corporate spreads widening, inverted yield curve, bank lending curtailed...oil is heading back to $ 25 after June OPEC (if not before)....the Fed is watching all this stuff.....the tightening are having the intended effect........Australian/Canadian dollars are weakening dramatically in recent days- signaling a fall in the CRB to come......and the blips up in March, April gvt. data re: inflation....will blip down again.....as negative wealth effect, lower consumer confidence translate to lower consumer sales within a couple months....Productivity figures will return to strong... IMO, The Fed is done in late June...and that is six weeks from now....some Fed watchers would claim we are at the bottom NOW as a result, for stocks rally six weeks before final hike... The Fed will be frozen after August 'cause election...I am betting that the data will be good enough in June/July to hold them off after a June 25....heck, Fed future have been getting friendlier and friendlier......maybe we won't even get a hike in June! (g)......nonetheless, I reckon the market (techs) will figure all this out before June 30....exactly when, who knows? Of course, Greenspan and co. could possibly pick up with hikes AFTER election...but I doubt the data will be so bad...that they won't end in August (at the latest)...and I believe June 30 is the better bet.. Tomorrow: After 4 down dayz...come on! It time for a little upside on the NAZ! Yeehaw!