Did mighty well on your answers again, Freeus. Again, your answers in bold and my responses in italics
Yesterday morning was mighty scary though.
I certainly didn't enjoy the spike down, Freeus but did feel like I was prepared for it, mentally and financially.
Number 11:
At $66 (Fri. 5/26 close) Support 2 was only about $8 or 10 dollars away (down).
BINGO!!! Still on a roll I see!
Number 11A:
The risk was $10 and the reward was about $30 or $33 so a 3 to 1 ratio.
BINGO AGAIN! I've historically found 3:1 ratio of risk to reward plays are always very good to me short OR long-term. I just felt it was important for you to spot a 3:1 play on your own so that you could be on the lookout for them and see if they work out well for you, too.
Number 11B:
Probably should buy more or buy Leaps for '02 or '03, but could I?
Hmmmm... Not exactly what I would have done, but that IS a strategy allright. However, statistically, if Support 2 is penetrated on a down move, it is wise to get out, as the price of any given stock will return all the way DOWN to original basing levels, which in this case is split adjusted $6-8. Please keep this very high statistical probability of 100% retracement in mind if you wish to preserve ANY capital to play another day if Support-2 region/band is violated, ok?
Number 11C:
Maybe not much time to buy this time, if it is lowest support level, perhaps in this order b days, a hours, c weeks.
I see nothing wrong with your answer order. However, I would like to expand your thinking if I may. Human nature being what it is, we have a tendency to think we have very little time when we are A) Scared, B) think it will only be "cheap" for a few minutes. We are culturally inoculated to buy when groceries are on sale...(ever rushed to the Grocery Store late on Tuesday evening before the grocery ads expire at midnight to pick up s'more __________ while it is still on sale?)<g> Like it will kill us to pay "normal price" instead of "garage sale prices" for our _________, (or our stock choice.) We are so afraid of NOT getting the bottom price of a given trading range, one of the hardest things to do is to pay up for a stock "once the train has left the station"
Some technicians want to wait for
... "put/call ratios to hit historic negativities before buying,",
...for institutional money to "show up on Thompsons Watch",
...for retail money to get in /get out...depending upon perspective,
...for buy volume to swell to 5:1 over sell volume type days signalling THEEEEE bottom, ad nauseum.
The filter was looking a little peaked so I cut another for the bear. I'm not sure I have it placed correctly however.
Number 12: 45 [degrees?]
BINGO!!! Interesting that a 45% trendline shows up so plainly on a BEAR sell-off. Now do you understand why some shorts on this and other Q involved threads were so confident about placing on their short positions?? Buying against a 45-R UP TRENDLINE, and initiating selling/short strategies against a 45-DOWN TRENDLINE are pretty much "carved in stone" safe bets, (if there is such a thing as "safe") strategies in bull and bear markets. MANY such instances of profitable entry and exits from initiating positions at 45-R (Bull) and 45 (Bear) trendlines IN LONGER TERM TIME FRAME Visual Aid perspectives are viewable if you would just take the time to make this a part of your knowledge base.
Number 12B: 22?
BINGO! Nailed another one. 22 Degree DECLINE is NOT friendly on the BEAR side of Coffee Filter Wedgie degree of arc. It is only friendly on the BULL side of your "wedgie." It is DEFINITELY NOT a sustainable sell trendline in a bearish sell-off.
Number 12C: a little less steep.
Woops, I believe you need to check again on this one.
From 8 on the top, which marks Resistance 2 because the rally abruptly stopped in the Degree of Entropy climax, please re-draw the line from 8 to S-2 and beyond....you will find it to be about 45 Degress as you correctly asserted earlier.
However, if you would draw a second "bearish fanline" from Marking 8 to Marking S-3, you would find it a STEEPER rate of descent than the 8 to S-2 descent. Another way to visualize it is put yourself into an SUV of your choosing. Now visualize the difficulty driving back up a 45 degree trendline descending from 8 to S-2. Now visualize the increased degree of difficulty making the drive back up the 22 degree trendline descending from 8 to S-3 The steeper the descent, the less likely you will be to keep your SUV on the road back up to the top.
Number 13:
Again yes I can see a "buying opp" but don't know if would have the oomph to buy at that point: certainly should not sell though, I agree.
Actually, I was quite pleased at your cautious answer.
For one thing, I would hope you would reality check any anticipated buy desires which would surface against a Degree of Entropy blow-off set-up to the downside in such a solid company, no matter how much "advance notice" the charts give you in your order of Days, hours, weeks:
Check current price against Long Term Moving Averages.
Check Interest Rate climactic changes since last time stock price was in this area,
Check for Fundamental news change that is verifiable by a simple phonecall to the company,, etc.
Check risk reward ratio of Support zone pricing potential vs. current "bargain buy price" urges!
Of course, I bought QCOM originally because I believe it is a market leader and a future (maybe even current) enormous revenue and cash stream. Agreed. Me, too!
The story has not changed although the news seems to want to trash it big time!!!!!
Again, we agree.
However, Freeus, I tend to "weight more heavily" utterances by the fiduciarily responsible COMPANY spokesperson, than some unaccountable "analyst" or "news source quoted on Reuters that is NON-company."
When was the last time you participated in a class action lawsuit against an Analyst? Remember how it ended? The BREX accountability is still ongoing, and Enzio Bianchi or however you spell his name, just lost his job and went to work as an analyst somewhere else in Canada, and kept his client's commission money, plus his own speculative winnings on playing his inside information on BREX like a master concerto arteeest. However, if you think ANYONE who remembers ENZIO's name is going to believe what Enzio says about a gold mining stock after BREX, you are sadly mistaken.
Ditto this knucklehead "Lehman Luke" with the loose lips who flushed out several 2-3 million share blocks of QCOM stock with his pre-Unicom FUD utterances last week, at/near the bottom last week, Monday. He has unwisely advised in 2 prior instances acc'd to threadmates here on SI, and it looks like he's just hit the "hat trick" of 3 for lousy analyses with his QCOM call. Look for him to be employed elsewhere shortly. Rest assured, SI'ers have long, verifiable memories. Luke's reputation will go with him!
Your C makes me smile: does anyone have a 2.3 year time frame these days????
"Welp, young lady," sez I in my best John Wayne imitation, "a Yup, I have me a 2.3 year time frame, ma'am! In fact if truth be told, it's more more than a tad longer than that. But I'm always happy to make you smile, little lady!!!
You'd be surprised, Freeus, how many of us use weekly charts of such lengths, frankly to check our work and check out our assumptions. Even Ole CNBC shows 52 week charts mostly, but that's better than 15 MINUTE, "long-term, daytrader charts," Now there's folk with REEEEEEEAL WEDGIES, Missy."<ggg>
Actually I will tell the world because I think people should be aware of the danger:
Had I used the Resistance levels to write covered calls (I would not have wanted to sell the stock) or buy puts, I could have saved at least 80% of the gains I had
and perhaps more:
the support was so much lower than the price that it would have been prudent to be cautious.
And tell the world you did, Freeus! In fact, I read earlier this week that you told the world that you would have executed at 15% if you had it to do over again. And some smart-aleck pointed out you didn't qualify your answer as to when you would have done so.
But you and most other porchers knew you were speaking within the contextual frame of our discussions, after an obvious Degree of Entropy buy exhaustion move had taken place, and not from the early "are they?/aren't they?" frame of reference that party tried to twist your words into meaning. I was pleased to see you, publically, stick by your guns and not be distracted by such attempts at "picayune porch positing."
Which leads me to my questions:
1: Time is a very important factor, isn't it?
ANS:
Yes, extremely so!
2) IOW, if a stock goes from $100 to $200 in a year, it's a lot stronger at that price than if it goes from $100 to $200 in a couple of weeks?
ANS:
YES! YES!! YESSSSSS!!! That is why the Coffee Filter Wedgie Degrees of ARC on trendlines is such a USEFUL tool. The Degree of Entropy movement is just EXACTLY what you described, and why one must ALWAYS be on the look-out for it, be alert to, and be prepared to take advantage of by selling into that strength when it occurs, especially when viewable, IN ADVANCE OF ITS ARRIVAL by looking at a Weekly, or Monthly chart!!!!!!
I must have instinctively known that and that's why I sat down at my computer on the first day of the market year to sell my options, though I didn't go through with it.
ANS:
Guard that instinct, Freeus. "Too much/too soon" is a TRUTH in many areas of our life. "Too much, too soon" phenom leads people into instant gratification (not always good) such as when lottery winners are 'created', or teen-agers demand the car before the responsibility is earned. Instant parting of money from senior citizens or other vulnerable groups, instant romances not necessary making for great long-term relationships, and advisability against get rich quick schemes all fall into that "instinct category" FWISA!
When something is TRUE, which you are calling "instinct" it will be true, regardless of the field of application! Thank the Power of Createdness for such an instinct. Cultivate it. Nurture it. Empower it by other re-enforcing skillsets such as we've visited about. But, PAY attention to that resonance, gal!
Too easy for people who have just bought in the last week to unload at the slightest tremble of price.
ANS:
Agreed.
Also: do you not take the market into account during the evaluation of what to do?
ANS:
No, not really. The market is a market of STOCKs I'm not buying a basket of equities, ever. That is NOT my focus or goal. I'm buying ONE issue or concentrating in one category killer in one sector, such as QCOM, CMGI, JDSU, etc.
If foolish people hand over the QCOM keys to the financial kingdom I'm wanting to build for me and mine, then I'll thank the "preponderance of foolishness" and load up. My problem is this: I want to send out thank you notes for these gilded opportunities. I just don't know whose shares I've bought and to whom to address the Thank You note!
Look at the chart of the Naz (and the Dow to some extent ,too): it's been horribly bearish itself since late March.
But I admit, longer view, even the Naz in in an uptrend.
ANS:
It's fun to hear you talk to yourself and to come out with a longer timeframe for evaluating bearishness, etc. I like that.
Truth be told, March EVERY YEAR has been a "stock market problem" for about the last 15 yrs that I can recall. Something about tax time just hits folks the wrong way, especially if NO planning has occured to make that payment "more convenient and less confiscatory." I must admit, I knew MORE Josh and Josie Schmoos from Kokomo IN who had to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars in taxes this past spring than I've ever known in the last 15 years of my existance.
Something I said earlier in our visits about planning for being wealthy and how totally unequipped we are either by upbringing or emotionally for such a challenge comes to my mind just now. Please, not only take this opportunity to KNOW why you're "holdin' instead o'foldin'", but PLEASE, PLEASE, PUULEEZE figure out and plan for being wealthy this next go round! Don't just throw together some mulligan stew "oooopps, guess what? I've just made a lot of money" last minute cobbled together plan, ok?
Just think where you'd be if you had a plan for being WEALTHY into which you had put as much time thinking and plotting for as you have surfing the net for the next category killer investment or dreaming those wonderful long term dreams of yours? Staggering consideration, yes??
I've got some ideas on that topic, and I'd like to learn from others who have planned for becoming wealthy and have executed rather well, extremely well, beyond their wildest dreams well. Maybe we porchers could explore that sometime....
Then you'll get that house, that car, that education, that early retirement, that Olympic training and that Libertarian party financing done and move on to the next big challenge...which of course is "doing it again to prove it wasn't an accidental "wedgie" the first time<g>!
OK no more laments, (I hope).
DEAL!!!
All the best. I look forward to more visits in the future.
( I sure do agree with John about enjoying "porchin'" )
O/49r |
