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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Rose who wrote (490)	5/23/2000 10:10:00 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Very good response, and I had missed the post that reviewed your record. A little more specific about asset allocation:I did a similar thing with my home and diversified somewhat by purchasing a vacation home and paying it off. I have put enough money aside to live on in cd's and sold my practice. The cash generated from this will provide me additional cash flow for 15 years. But I still have 85% in "new economy stocks," and the reason I am more bullish now is this: I think that many of these companies in my portfolio will grow at rates of 30% compounding for the next 5-10 years. Even if their pe's contract from here much more, I expect to be able to achieve 20% compounding, due to the strong growth of the underlying businesses. 20% is a lot less than 91%. I never had any illusions I would have an up year this year though, since I decided to stay with qcom. My year end target for the nasdaq was/is 3500. On 1/3, I felt that if I could have two flat years and then proceed at 15% per year for 8 years, and then 7% for 30 years, that would be tremendous. I don't think it was time to change strategies but it was time to reduce expectations. Gains from this moment should be quite large again however. Just mo.

To: Robert Rose who wrote (490)	5/23/2000 10:36:00 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Robert, I don't see any problem with your strategy. You owed the taxes for last year anyway, so I wouldn't include them in your 2000 high. We are invested in the most volatile segment of the market and big equity swings come with the territory. From what you said, I figure you're up 8x after taxes for the last two years. That is astonoshing performance by any measure, particulary after (or in light of) the worst correction in at least six years.