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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (31528)	5/23/2000 10:12:00 AM
From: PMG	Respond to of 50167

<the PEG theory cannot be discarded, low P/E multiples theory is associated and fraught with low quality of 'economic growth', that is dying productivity, lack of innovation and a standstill world, I don't see any of these happening in our universe of stocks, > Thank you for your thoughts, Ike. I agree very much with the above. But I was in the position to write and look over several Internet Business Plans. They are all based on cash flow models with more or less realistic estimates on the key numbers. While the first three years are quite forseeable, in the end the last period is included as eternal rent PV=C/r and in most of the times, this was the major part of project value. What, if the global competition we have, leads to much lower margins then expected to eternity? We have 6 Billion people, but the things we need are rather the same! We have Hollywood plus 5 others for the movies. Nokia, Motorola, Ericsson, +5 for the Mobile phones. We have about 15 independent car manufacturers. But we still have hundreds of players in the dotcom industry, and this is were I see the risk and the potential for a panic. Howewer, I see the same great increase of productivity that communications bring us. But maybe with more "standards" and less players. So productivity and provit may diverge... most important for my position is timing and I hope that I have some chance to exit with a "mild" loss if it goes wrong. Regards PMG

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (31528)	5/23/2000 5:43:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Hi Ike: Nice post. Looks like a day with no buyers (demand) just sellers (supply). In the last hour there were only sellers. I guess we can test your 2,966 support on the ndx. The big caps are starting to roll. The semis were bashed today. This is not good and the semi equips have an accounting issue to deal with as well. Some of my favorites CYMI, LTXX, MTSN, COHU, ASYT, ASML (other stock supply issues here), PRIA, BRKS, are pretty beat up and the carnage can continue. I won't touch an equip co until the accounting issue is resolved. For chips I like LSI, AHAA & AMD. I like LSI the most. On the component shortage front flash memory will be the limiting factor in cell phones this year so you may want to look at SNDK. It was spanked late after being up on QCOM news. QLGC is being shot with FUD. Once it finds a bottom you should look at it. Good news coming out in about 3 weeks when SUNW rolls out its storage initiative (using QLGC & ANCR, which QLGC is acquiring, products with sun servers). Great comments on waiting to initiate long positions. I guess the market is digesting / reevaluating multiples growth or no. I like your PEG theory. Unfortunately the market is being indiscriminate right now. Its shooting everyone. I wonder how much we can rally after the carnage is over with this technical damage. Funds were raising cash late today and if they continue (we won't go there the thought is too unpleasant). Maybe if Congress passes the China trade bill the selling will stop. At least this would be good for business. Now we only need the Judge to be reasonable in his sanctions of MSFT. We do have some economic news Thursday and Friday. Have a good nite. Tim