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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (514)	5/23/2000 3:48:00 PM
From: Olu Emuleomo	Respond to of 57684

>>>This is an interest-rate correction.<<< ADBE and VSH seem to be immune to Greenspan. --Olu E.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (514)	5/23/2000 5:21:00 PM
From: Peter Church	Respond to of 57684

"there isn't the fundamental background necessary for one, principally inventory imbalances that could lead to recession--" Maybe tech demand is still strong, but basic industries are signaling slowdown and recession ahead. That has got to impact even cyber-companies eventually. Besides the housing industry, which is slowing, auto sales are weak. Also, there is a Dow Theory bear market signal which has been flashing a red light for a year. Maybe the market downturn is acting as the leading indicator it supposed to be, and not an aberation. I think the bull's case is coming undone. -- ``There's not much doubt that most paper stocks remain cheap by historic standards. Unfortunately, they may stay that way for a bit longer.'' ``Evidence is mounting that uncharacteristically weak domestic demand and rising inventory levels are pressuring prices on some key commodities.'' -- ``Unfortunately, with the rising interest rates and a strong US dollar, we're afraid that overall conditions will get worse before they get better and that the weakness in some of these early cycle commodities will ripple into other markets.'' Weyerhaeuser downgraded by Deutsche Bc Alex. Br biz.yahoo.com

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (514)	5/24/2000 12:40:00 AM
From: Gary Walker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

>>You were part of the pump that pumped this bubble. Now the Fed is merely pricking it, something they couldn't afford to do during the asian crisis. That forced the Fed to accommodate during the period which led to unprecedented increases in equity prices while keeping interest rates low. This just pumped our Bull market and set up this decline. Without pulling out my old Barron's the bear market of the 70's was much more than just '74. It was the worst year but the Dow didn't recover to 1000 until 5-6 years later after the high in January of '73. There were very few rallies and hardly any volume, except off the low in the fall of '74 to the spring of '75. People bailed from that market and didn't participate for years. Mutual funds went out of business. In '74 there was widespread fear of an economic meltdown caused by insane government (price controls) and federal reserve actions. People in Japan now understand a "bear" market since they've been in one since 1988. Our parents remember the 30's. Every one of those cases was caused by the frothing bull of the prior 10 years. Call it an "interest rate correction" but don't make it out to be anything different from the past. The real reason for this massive market decline is the excess speculation that fueled the unprecedented rise in the NAZ. Now the bad news, the decline ain't over yet. I still can't believe you are holding through this. Easy come easy go.....

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (514)	5/24/2000 9:13:00 AM
From: Leeza Rodriguez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

William, interesting point you make about inventory imbalances being a principal cause of recession. That is such a good point. One of the bright spots I found this week was on a conf call of an analog component manufacturer (SMTC).They supply to all aspects of the teckkie market including computer hardware and WAN infrastructure . SMTC Management stated that inventory levels at OEM's were running low. I thought that was very positive statement to indicate that any uptick in demand will be reflected immediately. leeza rodriguez