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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (35331)	5/23/2000 5:12:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian and Thread, 1. I am 70% cash and rising. 2. I am afraid that we are about 2 months into a bear market and that there are still plenty of absurdly excessive valuations in tech stocks which will drive the bear. 3. The semi-equips would be undervalued today if they were not so highly cyclical. There are some key points to be discussing, now: a. How long will the bear market last? b. The bear market is currently caused by uncertainties over interest rates and inflation. Will higher interest rates, inflation, and a bear market lead to a significant slowing in the economy and possibly a recession? c. Where in their up cycle will the semi-equips be when the bear market ends? 4. I had no trouble buying semi-equips in 1996 and 1998 because the business future was certain and bright. I am not tempted to put more cash in now, when the current business is looking great, because the market, the cycle, and economy are beginning to look stacked against us. Cary