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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mani1 who wrote (112208)	5/23/2000 6:01:00 PM
From: chic_hearne	Respond to of 1570334

Mani- here's the data Stocks Tumble, Fed by Chip Equipment Data By Eric Wahlgren May 23 5:19pm ET NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled on Tuesday with the technology-packed Nasdaq market closing at its lowest level so far this year as news of a pause in the record-breaking pace of orders for computer chip equipment sparked a fierce sell-off in that sector. ``I think people are just looking for any excuse to sell technology stocks,'' said Arnie Owen, managing director of capital markets at Roth Capital Partners. ``The underlying fundamentals of technology are still strong. But it's any excuse to sell.'' Driving the tech sell-a-thon was word that North American semiconductor equipment makers posted $142 in orders for every $100 of products shipped in April, compared with an upwardly revised ratio in March of $146 orders on average for every $100 in shipments. But some analysts said the let-up in orders was not significant as previous months represented phenomenal growth, but they added that any negative news these days was a reason for traders to hit the sell button.

To: Mani1 who wrote (112208)	5/23/2000 6:11:00 PM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1570334

Mani, There are huge markets of people who do not currently have access to mobile communications or the internet. If the world economy is allowed to grow, the semiconductor market will see growth beyond your wildest imagination. Scumbria

To: Mani1 who wrote (112208)	5/23/2000 6:17:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1570334

RE:"Re <<I am not a person to assign blame, but I'm starting to view AG as a disaster in progress>> That does not make sense to me." Rather interesting that some people give Clinton credit for the bull market yet blame AG for a bear market. Jim

To: Mani1 who wrote (112208)	5/23/2000 9:58:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1570334

Mani, According the BTB just released, the growth in the semi equipment has decelerated slightly. This is fact and not open to argument, I do not publish the numbers. I am just telling you why the semi's took it on the chin today. A deceleration in equipment sales and bookings growth might have been more positive for semiconductor stocks. People are fearful that we are headed for recession and that the equipment coming online in 12 months will be pumping out chips for a projected demand that may not exist at that time. The only question remaining is whether we are headed for a recession or not. A few more rate hikes would certainly do it. If we get lukewarm economic numbers indicating a slowing of the economy, we are in fine shape because the FED make back off. If the numbers are still too high, look for more rate hikes and a recession. Trivia note: In February of 1995 the equipment index hit a B-t-B of 1.41 and remained above 1.0 for 13 months. The subsequent downturn is considered the worst ever in the industry, although there was a minor blip up in '97 followed by the Asian crisis. The equipment industry had 42 months of a B-t-B above 1.0 for the months starting in Oct. 92 lasting through Mar. 96. We have currently experienced a B-t-B of greater than 1.0 for 16 months. If we get a recession, the semiconductor upturn is short-lived. If not, there is a long way to go in the cycle. I do not know whether we will have a recession or not. :-( Bob