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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex Mt who wrote (519)	5/23/2000 7:31:00 PM
From: Wizard	Respond to of 57684

The problem with that is Alan G would grin if he read your note. A boom/bust economy is the worst thing that could happen. We need to take our medicine every once in a while to avoid a total bust like many economies over the years have had (US in '30s & '70s, Japan in the 90's etc...). The ironic thing is that this is all bullish for profit growth in the long run. Compounding positive profit growth (vs boom/bust growth) will very likely lead to a higher sustainable market multiple. The issue is that we got too far ahead of this (theoretical) market multiple. Now we appear poised to shoot too far below it. No economic bust = bullish. Interest rates are NOT the enemy, INFLATION is and we must take our medicine now to have our milk and cookies down the road. If you are a young buck like myself, staying bullish is the only way to go. Buy low, hold high, market tanks, earn bonus, buy more. Looking for another buy point on Ariba. Will it break its previous low near $50.... Don't know but we are very near an ultimate low in my opinion. Upside is big from $50 and downside looks to be maybe $40 on one of those intraday-margin-call-panic spike downs in the NASDAQ.