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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (34936)	5/23/2000 7:57:00 PM
From: re3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42523

KAPLAN'S CORNER: QUESTION: What do you think about the fact that the U.S. dollar seems to have potentially topped out against the euro and the Australian dollar? ANSWER: This is the most positive potential bullish development for gold. It is still possible that the greenback could have one final upside gasp, as a head fake in one direction is common before a strong move in the opposite direction. However, the direction for the next several months seems to have finally been clearly established.* As this was the last, critical missing link for a gold rally, the stage should be set for a significant upside move to begin within the next several days. Since this often accelerates over a Thursday-Friday timeframe, the next few weeks are likely to see a 10% rally in the XAU on any given Thursday-Friday interval. Exactly which Thursday-Friday pair will be the "lucky" one is impossible to know in advance. * got gold <g>

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (34936)	5/23/2000 7:59:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

heinz, I'm a youngster. When I graduated with my MS ('88) -- we had a commencement speaker from France. Some prominent so-and-so. He told us that the Japanese were kicking our a** and would own the US if we didn't wake up. They were (supposedly) already superior in technology and (get this) taking over the global financial markets ... Fast forward ... the similarities are greater than the differences ... only the result will be worse this time

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (34936)	5/23/2000 9:17:00 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42523

At the end of the bubble, it's interesting that the market becomes driven more and more by the lowest common denominators of emotion. We couldn't understand the final blowoff that began last Oct. because it behaved exactly the opposite of how a rational market should. I was tripping over myself time and time again to comprehend how, as you said, the buying could continue. And it was not just the retail investor, but those supposedly trained to be immune to hysteria and educated against mania. They bought as well, when everything pointed to caution. But what I did not understand was that the market lived in an area below reason. If you're in that space, all doubt is suspended. All doubt could be suspended because AG broadcasted his intentions to remove y2k risk from the financial markets. No risk, no caution. Come fall, the market was ripe for a security blanket, because the valuations were getting a little ridiculous, and there was enough reason left to see that. But AG took out an insurance policy against y2k in the form of massive infusions of paper. Once everybody realized that this money was moving into the market, a mass regression back into more infantile emotions became possible. Now that it's clear that AG will not support the market ad infinitum, it should not surprise us that the emotion felt is one of betrayal. IOW, everybody who whines about AG gets the mark of the clown on their forehead. Now at the end, the euphoria is not slowly giving way to rational thinking and investing (like silver bullion), but instead, the mania of the market is beginning revert into yet more primitive emotions. The final emotion that will be explored is panic, but before panic we get blame, whining, "fck it" rallies, shell-shocked indecision, fear, hate, more fear, and then panic. After panic you get depression, and nobody will post on the thread "All Clowns must be Depressed" because the depression will be real. I mean the emotion depression - nobody will give a rats ss about money anymore. It's the depression phase that lasts the longest, and is the most necessary to bring reason back into the market. Time is not important in this progression. The panic may last no more than minutes, or it may last days and weeks. It is irrelevant. If these emotions become dominant for even seconds, there is no intervention powerful enough to stop it from doing what damage they will. Reason can not intercept the end of a mania, because reason requires an understanding of those emotions which enabled a mania to persist. That will take years, if not lifetimes.