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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (35348)	5/23/2000 11:03:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jay: Re: "However, many of these stocks (have you looked at LRCX lately?) are being priced as if a recession is imminent." I have steered away from LRCX of late. And I have no proof for what I am about to say other than my own observations of the tape. Did you ever wonder why that on some days LRCX would be up in a sea of red only to drop like a stone later in the day? Well, LRCX has (had) a large short position. And I believe the shorts are running the show there and what you see on those green days are shorts covering. I have no interest in dealing in that stock anymore. I would stick to other large caps like ASML, AMAT, and TER as they will tend to bounce first when the market rallies unless the shortsters go long LRCX. Re: What do you postulate the odds are of a fed induced recession?" The Fed. has batted 4 for 8 in giving us a soft landing. AG did it in 1994. The key, short term, is to realize that the Fed. does not want a recession at this time. Anybody who thinks this has their head in the sand. The Fed. will take a recession when inflation is out of control. That situation is not here yet. Re: "Even if there were a recession, do you think that cell phone growth and internet appliance development are going to stop or slow enough so that chip capacity is sufficient to slow semi cap ex?" Yes, if a (worldwide) recession were to come on it would arrive just as the chip heads were ramping up capacity when none was needed. Ouch.