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To: KLP who wrote (19298)	5/24/2000 11:31:00 AM
From: trouthead	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 28311

History says the markets will rebound. History says the market will fall. What does Herstory have to say. Come on shark ladies. Don't let the fearful chicken littles have the day. TB, If I am a long term buy and hold investor, why should I panic? I have a regular investment schedule (to which I don't adhere slavishly). I put money into equities that I think have a good chance of growth over the next five to ten years. I am not complacent. Nor do I think the returns of the last few years are a birth right. I am an investor. A tortoise. I plan to finish and have a good time on the way. jb

To: KLP who wrote (19298)	5/24/2000 8:23:00 PM
From: tahoe_bound	Respond to of 28311

KLP Here is a picture that illustrates some of the sentiment picture quite well! schaeffersresearch.com The VIX and put/call ratios are no where (and never got there) near capitulation levels signalling a bottom to this mess, nor are the investors intelligence numbers, bullish percent point and figure readings, a whole host of others. Also, the media is rife with interviews with people on the street "Im not scared, it will be back soon" One of my favorite sentiment indicators is from friends and social occasions too! (And message boards lol) They can't wait to get back to even and beyond, absolutely certain that it is not going to get much worse from here. My contention of sentiment is from a contrarian sense. Basically, in a bear market and this is what this is for techs (for the past 2 years this is also true of most of the S&P) when the sentiment is one of denial, the trend is likely to continue until there is fear and loathing. In my opinion that sentiment now is rampant. Everyone is picking a bottom, and guessing that because this is an election year nothing bad can happen in the 2nd half (post election years have a bad track record historically by the way) Well, if there is anything I have learned, the market does its best to NOT accomodate the best laid plans and scripts of all the pundits and the rest. I simply wish there would be a huge down day or 2 with sentiment readings going to 1998 or even 1987 extremes, instead of the real scary thought of just grinding down all through the summer. Get it over with quick, scare the hell out of people making them question everything they were ever told to think about the bull market which has now changed, and then I for one would feel a lot better going forward. In 1987, I owned Fidelity Magellan for a year prior to the crash. It feels a lot like now to be honest, an out of control Fed with rates unjustifiably hiking up, and overvaluation. (The average s&p p/e ratio when the Fed funds were this high in 1991 was 18, it is now 28.... average tech p/e 30's, now way above that, still, after the last 2 months.) I was horrified that my $1,000 stake that went to 1,700 was all of a sudden $700. What did I do? I put in $500 more 2 days later. The attorneys in my office could not believe I was doing it. (I was a teenager running court documents, filing, etc in Portland) These were very smart, older successful people. They said their brokers and everyone they knew were so scared, there was no way they would touch the market for a long time. This was a great lesson. This extreme fear created a base for an incredible blast off. And you know what? That was the case for at least the next 7 years as the bull market began from that point, people did not start piling en masse. The market climbed a wall of worry. From a contrary and sentiment sense, it was great. Now, it is not the same. Everyone is totally convinced everything will get better. Will it? Probably, but not without a lot more pain in my opinion. Just as the market climbed a wall of worry for quite a while overcoming extreme negativity, it can just as easily rappel down that wall unwinding the extreme euphoria between 10/98 and 3/00. CNN, my colleagues, friends, TV sitcoms, the papers, were all intimating that the market was no place to be, it did not look good, it was going to drop more. Now? Totally the opposite. The sense is from those who fail to see the market has changed, is that the bottom is here or almost here. Most investors are totally discounting the notion that it could get much worse still, though obviously that diminishes the lower the COMPX goes. I would like to hear a lot more pain, a lot more bearishness, and yes some panic. That would be a blessing in disguise and probably signal a new bull market.