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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (31537)	5/24/2000 5:57:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Seeing Red: A View from the Bottom Kenneth A. Toudouze, CFA May 22 2000 The Nasdaq 100 [NDX] makes for an interesting case study. Keeping in mind that we remain bullish about the market in general and the Nasdaq in particular, here are some fast facts for your reading pleasure. 90 percent of the companies in the NDX are down 20 percent from their highs. 10 percent of the NDX stocks are off 70 percent from their highs. 32 percent of the NDX are below their prices from one year ago. On the flip side, 30 percent of the NDX stocks have doubled within the past year. What?s the net of all this statistical info? The data suggests extreme volatility has been the case over the past year or so. What it also implies is that we are seeing (and measuring) individual stock capitulations on a broad scale, something not seen in a meaningful fashion over the past few years. This generally would indicate a bottoming of the market. But this data also implies is that we are getting closer to a significant buying opportunity in technology stocks that hasn?t been available for the past few years. Microsoft [MSFT], Worldcom [WCOM], and Biogen [BGEN], household names all, are trading within 3.4 percent of their respective 52-week lows. Despite similar carnage for a number of NDX names, fully 42 percent of the index has doubled in value from their 52-week lows, which would suggest that these fallen companies have settled in at a more realistic valuation. Note, too, that the NDX Negative Earnings table below includes several communications services companies?Metromedia Fiber [MFNX], Level 3 Communications [LVLT], Nextlink [NXLK], McLeodUSA [MCLD], Global Crossing [GBLX], and Adelphia Communications [ADLAC]?which are undergoing significant capital investments as they build out their networks. A few lists for your perusal: NDX Negative Earnings Rank Ticker Company Price/sales multiple 1 MFNX METROMEDIA FIBER NET 150.95 2 LVLT LEVEL 3 COMMUN 43.31 3 VSTR VOICESTREAM WIRELESS 31.68 4 NXLK NEXTLINK COMMUNIC 21.49 5 CNET CNET NETWORKS 19.95 6 ATHM EXCITE@HOME 16.30 7 DISH ECHOSTAR COMMUN 10.82 8 MCLD MCLEODUSA 9.96 9 AMZN AMAZON.COM 9.10 10 GBLX GLOBAL CROSSING 8.50 11 NXTL NEXTEL COMMUNICATNS 8.40 12 NETA NETWORK ASSOCIATES 4.35 13 NTLI NTL 4.34 14 ADLAC ADELPHIA COMMUN 2.73 15 USAI USA NETWORKS 1.92 Note: These ranked worse on a price/earnings basis, and we further delineated the ranking by adding price/sales as a metric. NDX Biggest Correction from 52 Wk Hi Rank Ticker Company Change from 52-Wk Hi 1 LGTOE LEGATO -86.0% 2 VISX VISX -81.6% 3 NOVL NOVELL -80.5% 4 PMTC PARAMETRIC TECH -75.7% 5 ATHM EXCITE@HOME -74.9% 6 CPWR COMPUWARE -74.7% 7 QLGC QLOGIC -73.3% 8 ADPT ADAPTEC -73.0% 9 CNXT CONEXANT SYSTEMS -72.1% 10 QTRN QUINTILES TRANSNAT'L -70.1% NDX Closest to 52-Wk Lo Rank Ticker Company Change from 52-Wk Lo 1 ADLAC ADELPHIA COMMUN 0.3% 2 ADPT ADAPTEC 0.7% 3 MSFT MICROSOFT 1.2% 4 CPWR COMPUWARE 1.3% 5 WCOM WORLDCOM 2.4% 6 BGEN BIOGEN 3.4% 7 NOVL NOVELL 3.7% 8 CMCSK COMCAST SPL 'A' 3.8% 9 NTLI NTL 4.9% 10 SPLS STAPLES 6.3%

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (31537)	5/24/2000 8:37:00 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Ike: They never ring the bell @ tops or bottoms but your targets / ranges / strategies sure help all that read your posts. I'm always of the theory the MM's will try to inflict the maximum pain. With everyone now talking of breaking 2,900 and going to 2,500 to 2,200 area (which would indicate major crash and recession, which I don't think the FED is trying to do) I would think we are now very close to putting in the bottom, maybe today (maybe yesterday). Painfull correction in an overall bull maket. Unless we have runaway inflation (not yet anyway) I don't see the FED needing to put more pressure on the breaks (.25 @ most and doubtful in June). Tim