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To: t2 who wrote (10464)5/24/2000 1:42:00 PM
From: SJS  Respond to of 24042
 
T2,

The financial markets were not good, granted. But it was the LTCM fiasco that made the fed lower rates agressively. When you add the liquidity that created, the confidence that signalled, and then add the Y2K liquidity, you're awash in money.

Everyone feels rich, portfolios go up by obscene amounts almost overnight, and we all think it's "just the way it is".

However, two things are happening now, as David and others have echoed.

1) Raise are being raised,
2) More importantly, LIQUIDITY is being drained.

YOu also have:

1) Commodity price inflation (look at the CRB index!)
2) Wage inflation (check out the labor contracts that we re-negotiatied!)
3) Specifically OIL. Remember when all the brilliant analysts said oil would only go to 20? HA!

Double whammy on the money, and triple on the makings of true inflation.

Not a good cauldron of hope and opportunity right now, IMHO.

Steve