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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Efthymios H. Zacharias who wrote (35284)5/24/2000 2:52:00 PM
From: re3  Respond to of 42523
 
well, take my cra shares

puh-leeze <g>

actually i bought a july 75 call on cra.



To: Efthymios H. Zacharias who wrote (35284)5/24/2000 2:54:00 PM
From: Efthymios H. Zacharias  Respond to of 42523
 
Cramer:



<<Oh man, we just bought some SBC Communications(SBC:NYSE). Let me give you the thesis.

Each day seems to have its own theme here. Today's theme is "deflation." All of the stocks you buy when you are in a deflationary spiral are running. We think that SBC will rally because: 1) It rallies when people think inflation is under control; 2) It can buy stuff more cheaply because it pays in dollars for materials that trade in euros; and 3) It is the kind of boring, safe stock that people like in deflationary spirals.

What's wrong with this picture? Just a few weeks ago we were worried about rampant inflation. Now, with the banks and the insurance stocks running, the market seems to be saying that the Fed has won, that inflation has been tamed and that consumer spending is slowing (hence the action in the retailers, which is horrible, but also a function of Costco(COST:Nasdaq)).

If this thesis seems nuts, I don't blame you. But when I see the insurers and the banks running day after day I don't think "oversold rally." I think "thesis." The thesis of today is that the Fed has won.

THE FED SHOULD DECLARE VICTORY, BUT THE STOCKS THAT ARE RALLYING ARE SAYING IT WON'T. >>

meanwhile oil wrestling with $30 again and CRB at 225