Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shamsaee who wrote (20014)	5/24/2000 3:05:00 PM
From: techguerrilla	Respond to of 35685

Hey Shamsaee, I love your reads I have now concluded in my infinite wisdom (or stupidity, if you will) that the QCOM situation will be written about in the history books of the U.S. stock market. The Houses worked a major move on the retail investor. They transferred all the shares out of the speculator/margin "fools." They really resented missing the 1999 rocket. They got together over coffee and vodka and said, "We can replay it. But it will take a lot of work." The work has been done. Now we'll get upgrades and new target prices. (What a farce!) China will pass Congress, good earnings will be reported in July, HDR will roll out to public acclaim, and there will be a new launching. "It was all a mistake." I'm just trying to figure out the equitable order of public floggings. Where is that woodshed that Ronnie used to use for David Stockman, anyway? We need it now. Just porchin' and, as usual, "thinking under the influence," John

To: shamsaee who wrote (20014)	5/29/2000 3:30:00 AM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 35685

Given that the porch is a very hospitable and that you have posted here before, I've chosen to respond to you here rather than on G&K. As I said in the post to which you responded I believe a detailed discussion of ST techniques and strategies on this (the G&K) thread is about as appropriate as taking a "boombox" to church/mosque/temple and since a response to your query I am curious if you are fully invested at the moment.If not when did you start scaling back on your investments and what were the reasons. necessitates such a discussion, I hope you don't mind the change. As I've stated on this thread (and elsewhere), for me the ST and LT games are radically different. The way to succeed in a LTB&H strategy is to remain invested as long as you believe the secular bull market is intact. Now clearly if I was prescient and knew in January what I know now, I would have behaved differently. Not having such abilities, I follow the rules and in my LTB&H portfolio have remained invested. OTOH earlier this year, the Y2K liquidity produced a bubble that made many of the monetary and sentiment indicators I follow go "off scale". As I've mentioned earlier on this thread that caused me to initiate the largest short position (using options) I've ever undertaken on the last two days of February. Now I'm no great trader and even though the indicators were off scale I assure you I was very concerned from the end of February to when the market collapsed. Perhaps you don't recall but although the market peaked on March 10th, it rallied again in the latter part of the month. I remember because it was very painful to me at the time. As opposed to a true bear, I still believe we're in a secular bull market. While I'll trade the volatility, I'll "stash" the profits in stocks (mostly those mentioned on G&K) that are currently cheap but IMO will recover nicely once this correction is over. In other words I believe this year is more akin to '94 than '74 and we are not entering a secular bear. That doesn't mean that I think the next rally will be the start of multi-year bull move. Rather I fear we may see several false dawns before the real one arrives. But if played correctly these are opportunities for building the LTB&H portfolio of your dreams. In any event I applaud your attempts to increase your understanding and wish you well. Hanging around... lurqer