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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (25318)	5/25/2000 10:30:00 AM
From: Grantcw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Hello Mike, Regarding CDMA, the tornado is in progress, but barely so now that it has reduced to 100% annual growth. And today's announcement that will increase the price of handsets in Korea, CDMA's largest growth area that has accounted recently for 30% of growth, could stunt total growth enough to place it slightly below tornado level. Reagarding Qualcomm being in a tornado, companies aren't in tornados. Only products are. I see HDR as the next tornado. Previously I was hoping that HDR and CDMA might be in tornado-phase growth at the same time, but I think it's more likely that the CDMA winds will die down before HDR winds get to that stage. Your thoughts? Thanks for your thoughts, Mike. Right now I see the adoption of CDMA across the world as the primary driver of QCOM's earnings in the near future. As you say above, the growth of CDMA looks to be barely tornado level (which I believe in the book is more around 125% than 100%, but don't remember). So the main driver of QCOM's earnings looks to be barely in tornado, and I feel the growth rate will only diminish as the overall level of CDMA subscribers increases. Furthermore, earnings did not blow out estimates during the last quarter, so I don't have much reason to think that analysts are low balling earnings estimates for the future. The estimates that I've seen for the next couple of quarters are closer to 40% year over year, which would look low if CDMA is tornadoing (is that a word?). Then again, visibility for the company is a little skewed considering the recent divestiture of the handset business so it's possible that Qualcomm could be regrouping for another set of blow out earnings to end their current fiscal year. Overall, I feel that the CDMA tornado seems to be dying down as subscriber levels get larger. HDR is coming around the corner, but I don't feel that this is a gorilla lock product as of yet. Qualcomm is a solid Gorilla, but the growth of CDMA is a confusing idea to get my brain around. Thanks, cw

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (25318)	5/25/2000 11:26:00 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike: I think it's more likely that the CDMA winds will die down before HDR winds get to that stage. In the past, we have used growth in worldwide CDMA subscribership as a surrogate for predicting revenue growth for Qcom. Alternatively, because "old" subscribers are already accounted for, yet may be purchasing new CDMA equipment (upgrades), would it be better to count growth in ASICs from qtr to qtr as a better surrogate for future revenue growth? stan