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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (23508)	5/25/2000 12:17:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

>>did a quick check on charts to see perhaps why we bounced?200 day SMA for csco, amat, sunw (thats all i checked)<< SUNW resitance around 82 1/2, AMAT 90 and dropping fast, CSCO 63, these are all from descending trendlines connecting the previous tops, obvious but effective <g> Well this is one tough call. I don't think this is the bottom for the reasons I stated but I also believe we are close enough it wont matter a whole heck of a lot if we aren't in a real no kidding bear. As long as the trend can go back to being up, then a buy here is OK but I want a better and cleaner bottom for a big high risk play until the mud clears up. Todays touch on the low did catch my mid tine of the longer term daily fork which is my best one on the NASDAQ. This fork has been in use starting in March 96 and was only violated this last super rally. If it returns to being reliable, our bullish range is from 3K to 3675, our correction range will be from 2450 to 3K from now on and climbing. I have an alternate fork I was using when the blow off top took over last fall which points to a range to 4K but it is a shorter duration fork. I was actually using the new fork until I was talking to Don and he saw 3700 as important. When I checked my charts, I realized my old fork had that as the range also (close enough) and that today had bounced of that old fork tine as well. Therefore I think I will start watching this one more heavily again. I also dropped my bearish SPX fork since my bullish (grey) one is acting nicely with the bounces lately coming right off the tines on schedule. If it ain't broke...... For those that don't follow forks, assuming you have a good fork drawn, you draw them and leave them and let the market just run between the tines, very low maintenance which is why I like them <ggg> Bullish markets tend to stay in the upper half of the forks and steep corrections and bearish markets tend to stay in the bottom half. Violations can occur for short periods but if the violation stays out a while, you either look for a new fork or else you can draw an extension tine parallel to the existing fork and wait and see if the price will repel when it hits the new tine. I won't keep a violated fork too long unless it contains the action well and the price falls back into the old one fairly quick. Good Luck, Lee