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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1775)	5/25/2000 12:23:00 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 33421

Hi Chip, To be honest I'm a firm believer in William O'Neil's concept of all Rally's that are of substance MUST have a confirmation day.This confirmation day ideally occurs no sooner than the 4th day after a turnaround rally(of at least 1%) and it must occur on a substantial increase of volume.The far side out of that rally cofirmation day is 7 days.Farther out than 7 trading days and the strength of the rally is suspect (the rally in august of 98 was a classic that fell back and required the triple bottom that occurred in oct 7&8 to complete the "coast is clear" for the wonderful rally we've enjoyed eversince. It is his theory that the confirmation day signifies the return of the institutional money - the life blood of any substantial rally. I definitely buy in to the concept, as it is based off supply and demand theories that I DO believe in. So no real magic other than a count from yesterday's turnaround rally. plus thursday friday(monday is a holiday)tuesday wednesday ( #4 )to thursay friday monday-june 5th( # 7). It also fits with start of month buying and even more interesting, it fits with stinky's well anticipated 2700-2800 naz.Not only would it be a natural to break the 3000 mark but the put/call ratio has yet to spike up over 1.0-its come close twice and that cumulative effect may be enough,but still waiting and watching.I also would like to see a vix spike up to 60 and I'd jump on the train with both feet. Bob In short, this market won't rally thru the overhead resistance created by the substantial damage incurred, until the institutions join the party .Retail buying is not enough to power thru the worried buyers that are under water with their holdings.