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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shamsaee who wrote (25366)	5/25/2000 3:22:00 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

One thing that is certainly not true is that the gorilla game is only one year old. Past gorillas: IBM in mainframes. That began about 1958. Xerox in photocopiers, that began about 1960. Polaroid in instant photography, ~1961. The name gorilla game is recent but those companies certainly owned their space with proprietary architecture that everybody had to use. They brought big profits to the stockholders.

To: shamsaee who wrote (25366)	5/25/2000 3:26:00 PM
From: areokat	Respond to of 54805

"I brought it up on the thread and got grilled for it.Looking back now he was absolutely 100% correct so one can argue that LTBH in this case worked miserably." You are right when you say this runup was historical but what most of us are questioning is could you/we have recognized in advance what is clear in retrospect. There are so many variables that enter into the direction a stock's price that most of us have conceded we don't know what a stock will do in the future. We just try to have favorable probabilities on our side. If your study and use of TA gives you an edge your rewards will have been earned. Nobody can absolutely tell you it wont work but if you do you to can claim to be a 5 sigma investor. Good luck Tom

To: shamsaee who wrote (25366)	5/25/2000 6:31:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

shamsaee, In march,I was told by a TA specialist at prudential to go 50% cash ... Looking back now he was absolutely 100% correct so one can argue that LTBH in this case worked miserably. It makes absolutely no sense to me to use a short-term criterion such as performance from March until May for a long-term strategy. If it makes sense to you, so be it. But for me it defies all sensibility. Regardless, if it's important to you that in this case LTB&H worked miserably, show me a method of investing or speculating which hasn't worked miserably many, many times over the short term. You won't be able to. Thus, while you are right that it can easily be argued that LTB&H often performs miserably over the short term -- and ironically I don't think anyone in this folder has provided as much evidence about that fact as I have -- I don't get the point of making the argument. --Mike Buckley