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To: Ken Robbins who wrote (67075)	5/26/2000 12:52:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 95453

Ken, Agreed- Gas-fired power plant usage will help a whole bunch. For example PPL an eastern utility is building a 900 megawatt gas-fired peaking unit near Kingman AZ (SE of Las Vegas). The plant will operate only May-October... A 1,000 MW capacity gas-fired plant will burn about roughly 120-130 MMCF/day of natural gas I'd say...If that helps in calculating demand. Now addition of 182,000 megawatts of capacity to the US grid system have been announced through yesterday (add 900 more megawatts from PPL today in Pennsylvania). Assume that only 1/2 of that announced total will actually ever be built or 92,000 megawatts of capacity. The majority of that capacity will be gas fired, say 72,000 megawatts of gas-fired capacity will be built. Someone check my math here- at 120mmcf per 1000 MW capacity, I figure that demand for (conservatively estimated) about 8+ bcf/day of NG will be added during peak months of May- October to the US NG markets.... Average daily NG usage in the US is 55 bcf/day and 100 bcf/day on a peak pull day... So peak pull days may jump into the 110 bcf/day range not too far into the future.... Now a funny story about Entergy. I work with Entergy and they are great people. But up through last summer the software program that they used to predict hot weather days had not been updated to accomodate the warmer weather over the last decade. So their computer models underestimated demand for power and they caused a system trip in Summer 1999 which automatically shut down 13 of their generating plants! A bit of egg on face- But the software has been changed...And I see from the spot advertisement in New Orleans that you noted that they are being a whole lot more careful this summer heh-heh....