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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader Ric who wrote (19879)	5/25/2000 6:29:00 PM
From: Dennis V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Trader, news broadcasts stated that today's downturn was attributable to statements by TWO analysts. One, recognized as an expert on Microsoft, stated that the breakup value would be less than forecast. Another commented negatively on the profit outlook for Goldman Sachs, primarily due to low trading volume. How ironic, and fear is just stuck in this negative feedback loop. Zeev, is there a precedent for the present situation? Perhaps the bear market of 1994? No recession in sight though, and no big dive like 1987....

To: Trader Ric who wrote (19879)	5/25/2000 8:53:00 PM
From: MGV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Consider the possibility that there is no short conspiracy. When VLNC goes down it is not the result of manipulation but rather of valuation. For a trader, you were doing so well. Your common sense ran out of fuel at the end of your post. Do you get paid to post? Do you think Fred Kellett was paid to post the hyperbolic stories about VLNC sales? Kellett's fault most likely was blind greed. Based on what he says, he likely did think he could influence the price by stretching his perception of what he thought could happen. If you agree that he was not paid to post, then it should not be difficult to understand that people who question the valuation and management track record of this company are posting for the same reasons you post and not for pay. If the reason you post is not to have an effect on the stock price but rather to air your thoughts about the company and the market, then you understand why I post. I don't post to influence the stock price. In fact, I think that anyone who is posting to influence the stock price is naive at best and more likely deluded about equity markets. What you wrote about debt and investor behavior in the present environment is reasonable. Until, the Nasdaq falls to a new low or tests the latest intraday low on heavy volume, rallies will be limited, even when they are on heavy volume, such as the one yesterday afternoon. When the heavy volume lows of April and early May were breached this weak on light volume, it likely meant the market will need more time and the bear market will draw more pain with sub-3000 Nasdaq levels before the market can resume a bullish track.

To: Trader Ric who wrote (19879)	5/29/2000 11:01:00 PM
From: hhertzfeldjr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

I enjoyed reading your overview of the current market and the fact that so many credit lifelines have been pulled suddenly. I, however, disagree with you on a few of your observations. There is little evidence that Mr. Greenspan and the Federal Reserve can dictate the primary stock market trend over an extended period of time. If we are to be in a bear market the BEAR is to be in charge--not the FED. The BEAR will destroy wealth and dash hopes and dreams far beyond what is "acceptable or reasonable". And it will do it slowly and with uncanny deception. After all it does not want to scare investors away. It wants to destroy as much wealth as it can. The bear will have its way despite the Federal Reserve's announced attempts "to rescue" the stock market's long term investors. Consider this. The bonds and credit markets set the interest rate levels. The Fed is no longer in charge of interest rates levels. The trillions of dollars of debt have dwarfed the power of the Fed to a cheerleader status. All the Fed can do is to follow the market forces by setting the official Discount Rate to a market level that the debt markets will tolerate. The Fed had pumped 10s of billions into the market to encourage interest rates to stay at very low levels for the the last three years. Pumping money into an low inflation economy worked well. The credit markets could tolerate the money pumping process --money inflation --until the price inflation numbers soured. Greenspan truly has had until recently the softest job in the world. Not any more. Now that the rate of inflation is picking up the FED must pull this money out of the economy so that they can set the discount and funds rate to higher levels to slow borrowing and cool down the economy. They have no other option. If they do not make this move the government debt and bond markets will collapse sending interest soaring. And this sends the Federal Deficits to new unacceptable levels that could throw our monetary system into a deep sinkhole. So the bond market dictates interest rates. The Federal Reserve job now must be to soothe the feelings of the credit markets. And the BEAR is free to do what he wishes. Bull markets die from exhaustion. No crisis is necessary for a bear market. No CNBC guru's and Wall Street experts can tell you this. They would lose their investors and their viewers if the investing public realized that there really is very little any government agency or political party or President can do to change the primary trend of the market. So there only one thing that can save you from the Bear. And that is your own decision to pull your money out of the markets. History shows that stocks swoon to unacceptable lows and then soar to unbelievable heights. And each time you hear that "it is different this time" at the top. The feeling that the stock market owes this current generation much more because of who we are" is nothing new. And lastly the only thing that you can count on if we are in a BEAR market is that nothing works like it did in the past. Technical analysis becomes bent up. Support levels for stocks are not reliable. Buying defensive counter trend stocks won't work. There will be some stocks that go higher...but most of them may not. Enough cheer. Harold