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To: Hank Stamper who wrote (10539)5/25/2000 8:11:00 PM
From: t2  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 24042
 
David, I would think Greenspan would take a cautious approach realizing the potential risks of being overly aggressive. Any economic weakness this month will be enough to keep the FED from moving the rates higher.

Remember that the Y2K effect probably accelerated GDP early in the first quarter as companies and individuals waited for the all clear signal before making purchases and sales. Once they realized the world did not end, they had to make up for the slowdown in December. I guess that means the 4th quarter GDP was less due to the Y2K effect or could be considered to be understated. My point is that logic also means the first quarter rate of growth would have lower---maybe a rate that is more sustainable according to Greenspan. That is, 1st quarter GDP should have been lower while 4th quarter should have been higher.
The reasons cited for the 50 basis points increase was that the rate of growth was unsustainable without inflation. Therefor the real rate of growth was really lower in Q1.