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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (52221)	5/26/2000 9:01:00 AM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Respond to of 99985

Re: From Les's link... ----------------------------------------------------------- " The first leg down in this beast(the 1929 market) was a near 50%er. Ultimately followed by the first real rally in the 1929 bear. The market rallied from the first "heart attack" off the 1929 November low through to April of 1930. An approximate 40% rally. The deflation of the 1929 financial bubble so similar in character to what we see in the current market environment was a series of multi-month advances and retreats that took a number of years to play out into ultimate depth. Of course we are not suggesting that 2000 will play out like 1929, but rather that there are really no examples in US history of a market falling approximately 75% in 2 to 4 months. We would expect the NAZ 2500-2650 level to provide a good bit of support if we reach it. After all, it was the blast off zone for the final euphoric NASDAQ top." ----------------------------------------------------------- Let's not forget that was the Dow, not the Nasdaq. The Dow in 1929 consisted of the 12 biggest, most established and reliable companies, just like the Dow 30 today, and it dropped 50%. High-tech companies dropped harder, but there was no high-tech index then. When we see the Dow drop 50%, then I'll look for a serious rally. Fun-da-Mental

To: John Madarasz who wrote (52221)	5/26/2000 9:57:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

."It is still possible for the market to move higher from here and for the Ratio to be pushed back to it's bullish extreme,..." john, of course anything is possible, but when we put the nasdaq bubble in comparison, it dwarfs both the 1929 dow bubble and the 1989 nikkei bubble. although the chart of the nikkei and nasdaq are quite similar, BUT the final blowoff in the nikkei was done in a two year period from late 1987 to late 1989. The nasdaq bubble blowoff from the similar starting point of 1998 took slightly less than a year and a half and overshoot the 10 year nikkei chart by 1200 points, so you have a time and price rise parabolic in the nasdaq quite a bit steeper than the nikkei blowoff. i would take the bombs on security traders chart seriously. i remain bugger von bobonoff