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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Earlie who wrote (81191)5/26/2000 9:04:00 AM
From: cardcounter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
where do you check your dram prices?

i found www.aice.com

and I would imagine blooomberg has some functions (post the keystrokes if you know em)

what do you consider to be the relevant index or the most indicative chip price or prices?

I concur on PC box sales dieing .. box sales (pc systems & other) account for only 6% of MU's sales...

but you have to be pretty aggressive to short at these levels... the last Fed hikes will likely be in September
and a rally will likely occur after the June Hike... (even if Gore were to win)

There's not a whole of upside left on shorting MU , imo, at tempting as it seems... I can't really see this think going below 50 at worst.. It does seem a little range bound and to that extent I think I may short it around 70 if it pops its head up... (sorry for the technical babble)

and as for DRAM its expected to bring top lines of

quarterly
1Q98 440.1
2Q98 283.4
3Q98 290.2
4Q98 377.4
1Q99 437.5
2Q99 697.1
3Q99 593
4Q99 820
1Q00 A (11-99) 1339.5
2Q00 A (2-00) 1152
3Q00 E (5-00) 1300
4Q00 E (8-00) 1600
1Q01 E 2000
2Q01 E 1750
3Q01 E 1900
4Q01 E 2300

From this mornings numbers.... on bloomberg

"Backlogs at Intel

Intel Corp., the world's largest maker of computer chips, is among those finding that demand is outstripping supply. The company, which has sold out of some products because it underestimated demand, said this week it is spending $2 billion to expand a New Mexico plant.

Today's government report showed that electronic equipment orders slumped 20.1 percent after a March increase of 8.9 percent. Electronic goods include communications equipment, appliances and video equipment, as well as semiconductors, circuit boards, capacitors, resistors, coils and transformers



To: Earlie who wrote (81191)5/26/2000 10:33:00 AM
From: Ed Beers  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
I think the impact of foundries is being overlooked as peak dram pricing estimates are being made. While most of these would have costs well above dedicated dram producers, they will step in any time the dram business gets really profitable. The entry and exit of the foundries will help limit the peaks and valleys of the dram business so it is a little different this time.