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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (52228)	5/26/2000 7:20:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

OJ: In response to your query i smell a bottom..you? What ever happens in the near term, I don't think we have seen the lows for the COMPX or the NYA, but we may have put in a bottom Wednesday. Even with the fade Thursday, we saw a higher low and high. Hopefully, Friday will clear things up. I originally felt Wednesday would be a short-term bottom and went long just shy of the bottom on several punished techs. However, Thursday price action had me going short at the top and covering into the following decline. I personally need to see what happens Friday maybe Tuesday as well, to get a better read on the short-term picture. Futures up slightly overnight as I type, of course this could change... My QChart COMPX (NASDAQ Composite) 30-Minute Semi-Log Chart If you look at the chart, I identified a possible inverted H&S pattern forming. I don't usually trade these patterns as they are not very reliable. However, I thought I would point it out. I use multiple time intervals to determine pivot points. My shortest-term interval went to a buy signal into the close Thursday, but needs confirmation. Friday should give us a clue as to whether we hold and resume the rally begun on Wed or continue the decline immediately. If we do continue higher (holiday weekend ramp), I would expect the gap down 5/16-19 (3540-3506) to both attract price action and offer resistance. marketdirectionanalysis.homestead.com My QChart NYA (NYSE Composite) 30-Minute Semi-Log Chart Ran into resistance at the April 00 Rising SRL and then reversed back down only to find support again at the Mar 00 Rising Support Line. My indicators are mixed with my shortest-term intraday indicator giving a buy into Thursday's close. Confirmation is needed. marketdirectionanalysis.homestead.com ------------------------------------------------- My QChart Trend Lines Green lines are resistance trend lines or resistance horizontal price action areas. Red lines are supportive trend lines or supportive horizontal price action areas. Gray lines (SRLs) are either resistance trend lines, resistance price action areas, supportive trend lines or supportive price action areas that have been broken. They can now act as either support or resistance depending on price action. Dark blue lines are formation lines. Light blue lines are previous formations, but on occasion are used to depict longer-term formations as well. ------------------------------------------------- Conclusion: Volume should be light today as it is the day before a holiday weekend. Just guessing on market action, I suspect after an initial up open (as long as the futures remain moderately positive) we may see some fading leading again to a sideways trend intraday. If this happens it could build the top of the right shoulder of the inverted H&S for the COMPX. Once again it would be poised for a strong break, with a feel good holiday ramp being likely, but not a given! Sorry I don't have a definitive short-term read for tomorrow. I will just have to trade it real time. Any rally will be traded, but it will have to prove to me that it is more than just a bearish rally. I expect lower prices ultimately on both the NYA and COMPX. EDIT: My plans were to take today off, at the most it will be a short day for me... Regards, LG

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (52228)	5/26/2000 12:42:00 PM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

OJ ... now what happened to the OJ who declared that if AG raised by 50bp it (the bull) was 'all over' ?? ....LOL. I agree that its a trading market ... but then I've thought that for the last couple of years. As for the interst rate issue ... like the hype put out when the markets are going up, the rate issue is just one of the hype issues for the market going down - fundamentals have meant little in this trading market. And nothing works on an individual basis. In the intermediate term, peoples habits die hard & its in too many peoples interest not to let the bull die. However, I believe that there has been a fundamental change in the supply/demand equation with all the IPO's & lock-up expirations and with the fed looking to redress the liquidity issue. If that leads to a loss in confidence in the market by the baby boomers & sentiment hardens, there could be a sea-change underway. If the economy slows and the revenue growth comparisons are maxing out for the big techies (not helped by accounting changes for pooling of interest) & the big internets its going to get tough. I'm waiting for the next vehicle ... I think the internet is on shaky ground ... wireless & fibre optics are still looking good. As for today .... LOTS of distribution ... Stephen