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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (52237)	5/26/2000 9:46:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Roebear, i agree...that's actually the point, the more time passes the more energy for the move is building up, as the supply/demand deficit accumulates and the paper short position gets larger. here's an interesting article on the energy supply situation - a must read imo: csf.colorado.edu regards, hb

To: Roebear who wrote (52237)	5/26/2000 3:46:00 PM
From: Yogizuna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Very interesting and thought provoking post Roebear! Yes, if "Joe or Josephine Sixpack" ever wants to quench his or her "thirst" for security with some gold and gold stocks in their portfolios, the price of gold is going to rally very nicely, and they will not just be "bear market spikes" either like the last two recent rallies we have had that fizzled out and died on the vine. For insurance reasons if not any other, we should be accumulating gold stocks on weakness to prepare for what is to come. Yogi

To: Roebear who wrote (52237)	5/26/2000 5:40:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

re: gold: As you said, we don't burn gold to run our cars or heat our houses. Gold has symbolic value, and scarcity value, and nothing else. Aside from some small uses as an industrial metal, no one needs it. You are right, when the price of oil went to a point where exploration for new supplies was uneconomical, that made a price rebound inevitable. But that's because the demand continued. With gold, it's different. Demand for gold will only increase if the alternatives start looking bad. That will happen if (and only if) investors become convinced that the value of all the reserve currencies will not (or cannot) be defended by their governments. The indicators are the inflation signals. Steadily rising inflation, and a government unable to stop the process, would cause an upturn in gold. The odds of that happening are small. Or, rather, the uptick in inflation will be small, and the Fed will accept a recession rather than a return to 6% inflation.

To: Roebear who wrote (52237)	5/27/2000 12:35:00 AM
From: P314159d	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Roebear, great post, I don't even know what thread I landed on! But I will say this for ya, you have some experience around 1987 to 1990. This is when gold got tamed by the Fed. It has remained in the doldrums ever since. The fed just panicked and could do so again, with ita gold pop you can get in such a situation. I thought recent moves by the metal were curious and I expect a different response this time. Here's why. Remember as the fed raised rates, people said tech stocks were immune? Remember when the NAz broke down the first time, those pundits told people to go for CSCO and AMATand ORCL etc. the quality bunch instead of the Internets? Remember when Qualcomm was worth 2000 according to an analyst? Remember the Amazon call ? It is very close to 1929 here and we don't recognize it. It is very close to 1987 but the crash is across months instead of one day. It is time to buy your argument, because it will be only the best option to cash. Remember though in '87 and '90 how quickly it crashes, so don't fall in love with the metal too much or the stocks.