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Technology Stocks : Powercosm : Gilder ,Huber-Mills , AMSC , IMG ,... CREE ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: m2ranger who wrote (10)	5/26/2000 11:44:00 AM
From: Jack Hartmann	Respond to of 56

Thanks Rick. Maybe I'll try a few issues. Jack eom

To: m2ranger who wrote (10)	5/26/2000 9:48:00 PM
From: Doug (Htfd,CT)	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 56

I've read Gilder's wisdom religiously for perhaps 5 years, first in ASAP, then in the Gilder Tech Report. He was dismissed as a crackpot as he repeated his position that CDMA (as in Qualcomm) was going to blow other technologies out of the water. No one is doubting CDMA now. He's also for years repeated his position that the network will "hollow out," with the intelligence at the edges and the connections becoming more "dumb," with dark fiber replacing switched connections ... the "copper cage" of the traditional telcos locked into their metered business model. Some of the jury is still out on his "dark fiber" picks like Level Three and Global Crossing. Looking at their charts over the last few years, there have been opportunities for profits there. I wouldn't bet on him being wrong on the technology. Gilder has a history of picking out the counter-intuitive success stories that result in very big shifts in economic balances. Tectonic shifts. Way before the crowd sees them coming. What I have found is that one is at risk relying upon him for timing. Because his perception and understanding of a breakthrough technology is counterintuitive and idiosyncratic, his discovery of a winner may be years ahead of its discovery by the marketplace. Also, we all know that a bad business person can waste even the best technologies for a while, until they go bust and someone smarter takes over. Look at Nextel for one example. So, one who invested in Qualcomm, for example, when Gilder first started talking about it, or the first time the reader read about it, may have seen his/her investment go through some extended period of inactivity or downright loss. So, if you are not a highly patient investor, you may want to add Gilder's technology picks to a "watch list" and wait for the right moment in the right market. Great strategists may wait years until the place and time are both right, until that small voice says (perhaps in the accents of Robert the Bruce on midsummer's day, 1314): "This is the place, and this is the hour." The technique for timing that has worked for me is William O'Neil's, as published five times a week in Investor's Business Daily. Gilder pointed us to Qualcomm ("this is the place") years ago, and IBD's guidance said "this is the hour" in spring of '99. Look at the five year chart at finance.yahoo.com and you'll see exactly what I mean. My only point is, don't necessarily buy Gilder's picks the month he announces them. Even he will warn you his is not a timing letter. Doug (no present position in any of the issues mentioned)

To: m2ranger who wrote (10)	6/15/2000 6:15:00 PM
From: jhg_in_kc	Respond to of 56

Here is a brokerage report from the Powercosm conf. DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY FURTHER DETAILS OR SUMMARIES? TIA. JHG Stephens Inc. Morning Research Notes June 15, 2000 COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT: PWER ____________________________________________________________________________________ POWER-ONE FYDec. CEPS Prior Est. PWER ? $79.25 Rating: BUY 99A $0.60 Price Target (12 mo.): $87.00 00E 1.38 NC Todd Cooper (501) 377-2503 01E 2.05 NC Report From the Powercosm Conference ? Power-One?s management presented and participated on two panels yesterday at the Powercosm? Conference in San Diego. The term Powercosm was coined by George Gilder and his associates to describe the changes occurring in the area of electrical power technology. The changes that are occurring are truly revolutionary and offer the astute investor the potential for exceptional returns not unlike those that have been experienced in the communications revolution. Gilder Publishing is sponsoring the conference and has labeled Power-One as the Cisco (CSCO - $65.19) of the Powercosm. ? Of note to us was a projection of the growth of the dc/dc converter market for the telecommunications space that was provided by PWER and endorsed by other industry experts. Today, it is estimated that the market for telecom dc/dc converters is approximately $1.0 billion. It is the consensus opinion that this market will grow to $6.0 billion in just three short years. ? This staggering growth of this market segment should positively impact PWER?s two fastest growing product lines: dc/dc converters and telecom dc power plants. ? Since acquiring International Power Devices (IPD) in January 1999, IPD?s dc/dc converter business has grown significantly faster than the market. We believe that this trend will continue over the next three years. In September of last year when we visited PWER?s Mexico manufacturing facility where the converters are made, the Company had three SMT manufacturing lines. Today, PWER has in place, or on order, ten SMT lines. Each line is capable or producing between $40 million to $50 million per year in revenue. ? Demand for the telecom dc power plant product lines that were recently added with the acquisitions of HC Power and Powec should also grow as a result of the anticipated dc/dc converter growth. The telecom power plants provide the regulated 48 volt dc bus that power the equipment found in telecom central offices and other telecom installations. This equipment (routers, optical switches, lasers, etc.) that utilizes distributed power architecture is what is driving the demand for the dc/dc converters. As the demand for dc/dc converters grows, so too grows the demand for the telecom dc power plants. We reiterate our BUY recommendation. Stephens Inc. maintains a market in the common stock of Power-One and may act as principal in these transactions. An officer/director/employee of Stephens Inc. is a director of Power-One. Stephens Inc. has managed or co-managed an underwriting within the past three years for Power-One. Affiliates of Stephens Inc. own a substantial percentage of the outstanding common stock of Power-One.