To: bambs who wrote (36633 ) 5/26/2000 2:04:00 PM From: JRI Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 77400
Bambs- I think you need to take a more complex view of things....you quote an article "Electronic equipment sales are down 20%..".. This does not mean that every sub-segment (in that industry) was down 20%....refrigerators sales can be down 25%, and, simultaneously communication network equipment up 10% (or more), etc....also, sector weighting within the report(something not listed) is also critical, in trying to determine any relation whatsoever to how CISCO is doing....rather, try to find one analyst report, or report that specifically states that the market(s) Cisco addresses are slowing down....even a little bit.....that would be an amazing trick...Demand is very strong in the markets Cisco addresses..that is hard to dispute... Now, if you are claiming SOME tech companies may miss in the coming quarters because of the economic slowdown....I would agree with that....but they are almost entirely companies that do not execute well to begin with (2nd/3rd tier) and/or companies in low-tech industries (retail PC's..like E-machines)...as relevant to Cisco as apes are to humans... Now, I actually view the report you listed as GOOD NEWS....in order for the Fed to ease interest rate hikes, and, subsequently, the markets to go higher.....the economy must slow down (show slowing) in many segments....if consumer electronics sales slow, that is little concern to Cisco's business...but it could very well help Cisco's stock price.. Looks like the economy is slowing down faster than I thought....If the reports keep coming in (like this one you posted), housing data, etc.....The Fed may do nothing in June or August....or only .25 in June (and that's it)... How do you think the markets would react to that?