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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shamsaee who wrote (25391)	5/26/2000 12:35:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

shamsee, I'd like to clarify that I really, truly don't care whether or not people use TA, FA, or a combination of the two. I've got no axe to grind because I've got no control of anyone's dollars other than my own and a few children to whom I've made commitments. My response to you wasn't because I think you're right or wrong about using TA. I've never studied TA and have no informed opinion. Therefore, I don't express one. Instead, my response was about your short-term assessment of LTB&H in a way that appeared illogical to me. It still does. Moreover, using the same method of assessing TA seems equally illogical. If TA can give me some warning sign the next time around,I want to learn what it is all about before I give it a blanket dismissal. I don't remember if you are steeply immersed in fundamental analysis, but FA would have given you the same warning signs. If I were using short-term tactics, I would have removed a healthy portions of my funds based solely on the fundamental valuations of companies sporting PSRs in the 100s, huge companies trading at PE multiples 5 - 10 times thier estimated growth, etc., etc., etc. My point is that for those who are unaware, I wouldn't want them being mislead into thinking that TA was the only method of realizing how high the prices were getting. And it's not as if I wasn't mentioning it regularly here on the way up. --Mike Buckley

To: shamsaee who wrote (25391)	5/26/2000 7:18:00 PM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>>My comments are simple when stocks get to crazy valuations one must take some cash out of the market.If TA can give me some warning sign the next time around,I want to learn what it is all about before I give it a blanket dismissal.Call me crazy for wanting to learn.<< Of course learning is the best thing to do. The more we learn the better equipped we are to read the signs, discerning the important and ignoring the frivolous. Some people believe that trying to find a way to time the market - or a stock - is like trying to find the fountain of youth or the formula that turns lead into gold. Others, believe differently. We all have many choices to make in managing our investments - what to buy, when to buy it, how much to diversify and how long to hold. If you really want to learn whether you yourself can beat LTB&H here is a test: Take your real portfolio this weekend and create a private portfolio for yourself here on SI. Make everything exactly the same. Then go ahead and manage your investments using whatever tools you wish - TA, FA, options, etc. But, do not touch the SI portfolio, just leave it as a pure buy and hold model. Then you can use it as a yard stick. See if you can beat it for a month, a year, five years. Then you will have your answer. I think that is such good advice, I may even take it myself. <g> StockHawk