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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shamsaee who wrote (25397)	5/26/2000 1:00:00 PM
From: sand wedge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Since you have started to investigate TA, it would be interesting to research what the TA indicators were during the run up in Dec. I suspect you might be surprised at what you find. I have always understood these tools were excellent at understanding historical movements of a stock. They can not predict votes in China, Greenspans actions or press releases initiated for competitive reasons.

To: shamsaee who wrote (25397)	5/26/2000 2:41:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

shamsee, Is it a good decision to hold at extreme valuations because the manual says you never sell a Gorilla and must adhere to LTBH? The manual doesn't say "never sell a Gorilla." You won't find it anywhere in either version. The manual also never says you must adhere to a LTBH approach. It merely says that its approach based on a thorough understanding of value chains, product adoption, and the like requires a much longer time frame than anything addressed in technical analysis, if I understand the big picture of technical analysis. Even so, I don't think any investor should do anything because an author suggests it. We should do what we think is best because it's our money that is on the line. Do I ignore common sense when everything shouted at me to pull back and reduce my exposure/risk? What you might percieve as common sense, I don't. It's that simple. Perhaps more to the point, I tend to base my decision on what I often think of as uncommon sense. I don't want to appear arrogant by implying that I or a relatively small group of us know something others don't, but everything I've read tells me that it is uncommon for people to think that they can't predict the highs and lows (or the near highs and lows) because, after they've lived through the swings, it's a natural tendency to think we can. I can't. I know it. Therefore, it might be uncommon sense for me to acknowledge it. Point of fact: Many times in the past 12 months and depending on your point of view, 36 months, a fundamental analysis using almost any measure, including the liberal ones tweaked to accept that the market tends to undervalue gorillas, would have given me "signals" to sell. Had I done that, one example would have caused me to sell Cisco at a much lower price than it currently stands despite that it is 33% off its high. I believe it has fallen 40% only three times in the last five years, so a 33% decline is not insignificant. I could name numerous other examples. My point is that in times like these when some people tend to react to the market by thinking that short-term timing is the prudent way to go, it's most likely based on the assumption that something near the top and something near the bottom can be predicted. That's rarely the case on an individual basis and is never the case on a consistent basis. Therefore, what you call common sense makes no sense at all to me. --Mike Buckley