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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Dog who wrote (67194)	5/26/2000 3:30:00 PM
From: Heretic	Respond to of 95453

>>Is the only really safe bet to buy physical assets...oil/gas futures?<< Big Dog, You might want look at the following fund: Oppenheimer Real Asset Fund (QRAAX) oppenheimerfunds.com quote.yahoo.com

To: Big Dog who wrote (67194)	5/27/2000 12:22:00 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Big, I strongly suspect the answer to your very poignant query lies in an examination of the great bear market of 74-75 and the ensuing years. Since that period is now but a distant memory to even the most venerable among us, it appears to me that some research is in order. What exactly happened to oil patch stocks when the "Nifty Fifty" were being annihilated? I was a callow youth at the time, and far more interested in Blondes and the fortunes of the NY Yankees than I was in stocks and bonds. Therefore, I am not exactly sure how oil stocks fared during that bear market. One thing is clear to me, however, the ensuing years provided for an oil patch boom of almost unprecedented length and power. My current view is that the consolidation we have witnessed over the past several years in the XOI from 400 - 500 will hold the key. My best guess, is that the XOI will break to the upside in the next month or two, and will lead to a major rally in all oil patch stocks going forward from there. I also believe we may be witnesssing a major transition in stock market leadership unfolding. This will be confirmed by a major break out of the XOI. Watch relative strength to get a key insight into the thinking of the market place. Since the modern industrialized world is still almost entirely dependent on the hydrocarbon for it's existence, I suspect the most valuable machines in that world (for the next few years) will be, not the computer but, the drilling rig. This is the result of two decades of economic boom during which oil production capacity expansion began to die on the vine. The industrialized world simply MUST now address oil production capacity if it is to continue to grow. The current situation reminds me somewhat of the situation during WWII when the advance of allied amoured divisions simply ground to a halt and had to wait until their supply lines caught up with them. Since the stock market investor cannot practically own such machines directly, or correctly apply them, they will have to own them via proxy. And surely the RIG Dog understands the implications of that. Will oil or natural gas be worth more than the rig that finds it or produces it? You tell me. I expect we are not nearly to the point of inflation such as occurred during the 30 in Weimar Germany. During that period of worthless paper money, the only thing that mattered was portable goods and physical commodities. I believe we are far removed from that point, and for many reasons that are simply to complicated to deal with here. But you wonderful folks in the oil patch will have to get busy so that we can all continue to enjoy our current very high standard of living, won't you? ;o} JMVVHO Bull