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Technology Stocks : SDL, Inc. [Nasdaq: SDLI] -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (1470)	5/30/2000 12:11:00 PM
From: OWN STOCK	Respond to of 3951

OT: Well, first, the deal is the use of portables, not the energy crisis, that will drive the market for more efficient "portable power". However, there is a big decreasing return problem in this market. Meaning: chips and batteries and solar cells that are better than xx% efficient must justify all their added costs on only (100-xx%). So as the technology gets better, there is a lot less money to pay a premium for it. And the technology is already pretty good. Would you pay four times the price for a PC (and power chip and battery) that lasted another hour longer? Not me...I would buy two "old" batteries.... Also, there is very little fundamental technology here...so there will be little barrier to competition. Sort of the opposite of Intel, where the IP barrier plus the fab technology rules the day. They only have a couple of competitors. Power chip makers will have lots of competitors, and fast, and from low tech places like China and India. Too easy to make. Does not sound like a "killer" opportunity to me. This is yet another case of a piece of brain candy from GG not well digested (by him) prior to spouting off. Makes me think I should put out a newsletter and charge for it, but then I might be tempted to write anything to fill up the required space and make a deadline (I think that is his main problem, he is a smart guy). Even highly sophisticated super efficient solar cells can be made almost anywhere these days...so I do not think the "power" sector has a chance....when was the last time you decided to invest in utilities...??? So: low barriers, plus fundamental problem in the market paradigm equals pretty poor opportunity to me... -Own