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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ratan lal who wrote (25414)	5/26/2000 10:34:00 PM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>>I knew many people who 'gave up' their houses in the 1990' as prices kept dropping even below their mortgages<< The question is, what did they do with the money after they gave up their houses? Buy another house? In the NY metro area many homes, especially condos and co-ops lost a big part of their value. That was true in the heart of Manhattan and more so in the suburbs, and people who sold were often devastated. And the market did not snap right back. It took time. But eventually it did come back and prices now are at all-time highs, in some areas they are much higher than ever before. The problem with buy and sell decisions is that we do not have a time machine. If I could sell all my QCOM at $150 I would do so, but when QCOM was at $150 I did not sell. So my only decision now is whether to sell Monday morning at $66 or so or to hold on. If I knew the stock price two years in the future I would have an easy decision. Since I do not know I can only speculate on where the price might ultimately go. Are we close to the bottom or near an intermediate top? Can I sell QCOM at $66 (perhaps pay some tax)and buy back at say $35 or $12? Anyone who sold SDLI yesterday saw it jump $30 per share today. Should they get back in? Should they wait for a pull-back? What if there is no pullback, what if it goes up another $20 on Monday and takes off from there? SDLI went up because management spoke about good growth, better than had been expected in their dynamic field of fiber optics. Are they unique? Perhaps the real Y2K disaster will be the fall of the mighty NASDAQ. Perhaps it will get crushed and never recover like the market in Japan. That's possible, but I think it's doubtful. Laszlo Birinyi, a Forbes columnist and a very smart man wrote this recently: "I first highlighted Texas Instruments in my Jan. 6, 1992 column. Since then the stock is up over 4000%, but it had ten corrections of 20% or more. It's having another now. Since every other one has been a buying opportunity, this one is as well. History is on the side of the bulls" Most of us who were in the market for at least a year saw the amazing run-ups. Stocks up $20 or $30 per day glowing bright green all over the stock screens. We read about high valuations - we knew what was going on. The Nasdaq had two January corrections and another in March. Certainly "the writing was on the wall." Yet some people who did not sell then are considering selling now. Is the future now clearer than in was a few months ago? Are further declines in the cards? I guess we'll find out. StockHawk