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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ruffian who wrote (10850)	5/27/2000 12:28:00 AM
From: JGoren	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

The best article I have seen; rather convincing. For more bad news, here's why Nokia won't buy Qcom chips: Message 13775360 To: samim anbarcioglu who wrote (4983) From: Mr.Fun Thursday, May 25, 2000 10:30 AM ET Reply # of 5040 Sam, since you are so fiesty with other people's posts, let me take exceptions to several points made in your recent missive. 1. >>After all, the US has very low wireless peneration at the moment(30 % or so) and it will be 80 % o so in 3 - 5 years, and the US is going CDMA.<< Experience in Finland, Sweden, and South Korea suggests that penetration rates slow dramatically when you get to about 60%. I have not seen any serious market study suggest 80% penetration in the US in 10 years much less 3-5. 2. >>But NOK has not been able to design and manufacture a CDMA ASIC that is acceptable in quality to the US carriers.Sooo, guess what. NOK goes back to the drawing board and tries to come up with their own CDMA ASIC.<< This point is true, but perhaps not for long. After a year of offering CDMA handsets Nokia has captured about 10% share in Canada and Latin America. Sprint has approved the CDMA 5100. Word on the street is that Bell Atlantic has finally approved Nokia's most recent CDMA implementation. 3. >>Why not buy them from QCOM, build the phones, conquer the market and be done with it and the NOK stock price will be $100 in 3 - 4 months, just wait 1 reporting quarter. But as you will see, this is sacrilege. What? do business with QCOM? We would rather eat moose dung. As you will see as you stay around more, that particulary some Nordic contributors on this thread see this whole thing as a chauvinistic thing i.e. my country has more wireless, We are the leaders you are not, my phone is bigger than yours etc. The concept of improving the bottomline of this company and increasing shareholder value does not cross the minds of these people. They are simply obsessed with their country's pride, how to defend it against the US technological invasion of turf (as they view it)<< There are very sound business reasons for not buying QCOM chips. First, every Nokia phone is built off of the same core TI DSP. This allows them to maintain an unheard of 80% commonality of parts, which in turn gives them enormous advantages in purchasing and manufacturing. This gives NOK a 10-15% cost advantage over every competitor. If NOK succeeds in implementing CDMA-One on the TI chipset, this advantage is carried over to the CDMA market. QCOM charges alot for its chipset and if NOK were to buy it the cost advantages of its business model would be obliterated. Given the competition is Samsung, AudioVox and Kyocera, Nokia is not exactly scared that it won't be able to make up lost ground once it has the implementation of CDMA on TI right. Sustaining margins is just as important as building market share - ask Motorola. This is not a holy war. It's just good business.

To: Ruffian who wrote (10850)	5/27/2000 1:03:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

Blah, blah, blah, blah ... Zhu, Hu, Wu, Zhongxing... Will they? Won't they? We know what spectrum is worth in uncrowded UK. Guess what it's worth in China! Yes, CDMA takes the same erlang/bushell there as in the UK where it is far less crowded, making pressure on spectrum in China much greater. We know that 3G will be CDMA. I know from seeing their maths and science results here that there are one or two Chinese who know the difference between a wave function and photon phragmentation. So we can conclude they are NOT technically bamboozled by the orthogonal concatenation stuff. They KNOW how many photons they can squeeze into the Great Hall of the People. That's about all we need to know to know that they will be installing a LOT of CDMA equipment. So it's just a matter of when they are squeezed up against busy signals. We can just relax, sit back, and wait for them to pay a fair and reasonable rate like everyone else for Q!'s wonderful creation. They'll hiss and roar, threaten, promise and cajole. Tease, lie and suggest this that and the other. In the end, they'll buy. They'll expand their existing GSM because that's the sensible thing to do for now, then when the time is right, they'll bring on CDMA. I suspect Unicom will be wanting to do it sooner rather than later. There is no future in GSM when the spectrum cost per megabyte is compared with that from HDR and CDMA. We KNOW from the UK just how important spectrum cost will be. China's geeks can figure that out too. They've got Korean companies busting to do business in China. Japan is into CDMA. It's amazing how often investors in Q! have been stampeded into absurd sell-offs by one scare after another. While they were selling, CDMA kept right on gaining ground, through the Asian Contagion and disappearance of Korea off the edge of the world [if we listened to a lot of people who know these things]. Meanwhile, ex-FCC boss Reed Hundt joined the absurd idea that high spectrum costs suppress innovation. Quite the contrary. Scarcity and high costs drive innovation. It becomes essential to squeeze every photon possible through a channel. That was the driving force for CDMA in the first place. That means highly sophisticated CDMA and lots of R&D. High costs mean early and urgent buildout to get early returns. Enjoy the shopping expedition for Q! stock folks. It won't last long. Mqurice PS: See Ramsey, CDMA is now more politics than silicon/germanium/gallium. Politics counts. $62 May 2000...who'd have thought it?

To: Ruffian who wrote (10850)	5/27/2000 8:15:00 AM
From: qveauriche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

Can anyone post details about Monday's roadshow schedule, and how early in the day we can expect Unicom officials to face a thorough and sifting cross-examination from a pro-CDMA investment house on this whole mess? And can a tech guy provide a balanced and informed view of QCOM's place in a W-CDMA dominated 3G world as it relates to (i) royalties and (ii)QCOM's ability to develop W-CDMA chipsets, and dominate the market for the sale of those chipsets as it has dominated the market for 2G CDMA chipsets? Monday's gonna be huge, folks.

To: Ruffian who wrote (10850)	5/27/2000 9:21:00 AM
From: puzzlecraft	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

"...China, concerned about expensive royalties draining profits overseas"... This kind of phraseology keeps appearing and needs to be addressed. As QCOM is a company that singly has a very large % of essential CDMA IPR, QCOM makes an easy target for those who want to engage in this kind of phraseology. Let's take the GSM collective of companies that presumably have a lot of cross licensing amongst themselves and treat them as a single entity: "GSM Collective (GSMC)" so we can say QCOM and GSMC. The collective profits of GSMC is many times what QCOM makes. How does the royalty/IPR/etc. which goes to GSMC compare to QCOM? Is QCOM really requesting "expensive royalties draining profits overseas" compared to GSMC? John