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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (104213)5/27/2000 2:20:00 AM
From: Bill Harmond  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
You are absolutely right. Dispassionate, too.

It's the age-old Wall Street axiom playing out: When the [liquidity] tide goes out, we find who's been swimming without a bathing suit.

There is no halo effect tight now, only the companies with the strongest franchises, the soundest business models and the biggest competitive edge are finding bids. The rest are whithering. Some of the whitherers will come back surprisingly strong, but many won't. The top tier players with cash reserves and growing market shares will make new highs from here. Their charts will snap back to their mean angle of ascent as soon as risk premiums become normalized again.

It has happened over and over. Siebel, which was selling at Internet-style valuations was cut from something like 48 to 13 during the last Fed tightening in early 1997. Cisco was halved. So was AOL. All three came back with amazing robustness that summer and beyond to become legendary performers.