Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (1820)	5/27/2000 2:16:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Let's review today's Macro data!!! THE PCE Deflator is one of Greenspan's favorite inflation indicators and this flat number was very constructive for the markets. -------08:34 ET 30-year: -4/32..6.113%....GNMAs: unch....$-¾: 107.40 April durable goods orders plunged 6.4% following the upward revision to 4.5% growth in March. A 6.7% drop in transportation orders provided the key drag as a smaller level of defense orders fell 20%. Ex-trans orders fell 6.4% as electronic equipment orders plunged 20%. Overall the largest decline since 1991. Income rose 0.7% as expected and joined with an 0.4% rise in personal spending left a higher (but near record low) savings rate of 0.7%. The PCE deflator was flat after an 0.5% rise in March. ------- ----------------------------- ---------08:40 ET 30-year: -5/32..6.117%....GNMAs: unch....$-¾: 107.47 The Fed: The Fed debate is starting to heat up with the recent pressure in US equities, as well as the carnage overseas. While recent Fedspeak suggests the Fed has no intention of moving to the sidelines, the fact that the curve has disinverted by 15 bp since the May 16 FOMC meeting, while the Nasdaq has lost over 500 points, suggests that expectations for a more aggressive Fed may not be as prevalent, supporting thoughts we have heard over the last few days suggesting the Fed may need to take a breather. Keep in mind that the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index is now up a much more Fed-friendly 7% year on year...more---- ----------------- -----12:07 ET 30-year: +25/32..6.049%....GNMAs: +9/32....$-¾: 107.08 The euro-dollar looks set to end the European session on its highs at 0.9315 with the former break of key resistance at 0.9200 providing a strong follow through. The measured projected move of a completed double base from the 0.8850 lows of May 4 and May 19 stands at 0.9550...------- -------------------- GOLD is still the whipping boy on the block.... --------12:22 ET 30-year: +24/32..6.051%....GNMAs: +10/32....$-¾: 106.94 Some of the demand in longer-dated cash has been attributed to some hedge funds trying to offset some of their painful equity losses. Of interest, while gold is firmer on the session, it has not really been able to benefit from the recent carnage in stocks. This is somewhat surprising when considering the short hedge fund exposure to gold at the expense of techs, and suggests that the funds are looking to continue using gold as their funding vehicle to get long Treasuries. The continued pressure on gold may also be a function of thoughts that an overtightening may bring about another round of deflationary pressures in parts of the global economy.------