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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Threei who wrote (8570)	5/27/2000 11:07:00 AM
From: Jon Tara	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 18137

I think even that is overly-optimistic. Clearly, there is no bottom in sight, when even the most pessimistic posters think this is nothing more than a typical summer doldrums. The typical bear market lasts TWO YEARS. Some have lasted much longer (1929). Nobody gets it - IT'S OVER. I'd guess that less than 5% of investors right now think that IT'S OVER. The bottom won't be hit until 80% or more believe that IT'S OVER and throw in the towell. Now, I'll repeat the advice that was given me weeks ago when I mentioned that I had been doing nothing in the market because I only trade long. PRACTICE YOUR SHORT TECHNIQUE. Otherwise, go ahead and take that vacation. But make it a long one. Mars, anyone?

To: Threei who wrote (8570)	5/27/2000 2:37:00 PM
From: TraderAlan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18137

Vad, We are so conditioned for the capitulation event. This sure smells different, especially after that 5th wave parabolic event we saw from 10/99 to 3/00. But you have to take a giant step back. If you look at the Nasdaq index on the weekly, there is no bear market. This is still just a bull correction from the move that started in fall, 1998. The pattern says we could get a monster double top on that longer term chart. The markets should start to come back 1) if/when they smell the end of the Fed tightening cycle or 2) Microsoft settles in a way that the company doesn't get crushed and it can actually rally. I personally don't think many Net stocks will ever come back. Just take one look at Digital Island or a few hundred other ones. Thats no correction. Thats obliteration. 90% loss of value in 60 days. But their capitalization in the indices isn't that great and if there is now reduced liquidity, if it focuses on just the Nasdaq-100, the market could move up 2,000 pts pretty easy. Alan

To: Threei who wrote (8570)	5/28/2000 9:27:00 PM
From: gaj	Respond to of 18137

threei - reading up on the past, what i'm looking for (to start actually holding positions for a while - weeks / months, rather than hours / days) is a complete lack of interest in the stock market. that will be my cue to watch institutional buying, and follow them in... right now, there are too many people who want to talk about the market; don't forget, march only wiped out the people who were extremely greedy or JUST got in. there's plenty of people who have huge gains in semis, etc. from way before then. i'm not even looking for a price crash - just, at some point, when the stocks have stopped going up (not necessarily going down), they may sell to get 'guarantees' in bonds, or CDs, or anything else. i'm not smart enough to know when that is, but that's my thoughts... for now, as for the past few months, i'm looking for very short term stuff reversals of overreactions...- bob gaj